As Bitcoin prepares to undergo its next halving event in April 2024, a cycle that occurs roughly every four years and slashes the rewards for mining Bitcoin by 50%, concerns surrounding the profitability for miners are becoming increasingly pronounced. Industry analysts argue that the outcome of the halving event will be a litmus test for miners’ adaptability in a rapidly evolving environment.
According to a report on July 13 by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou of JPMorgan, miners with lower electricity costs may be able to weather the financial implications of the halving, while those with higher production costs could grapple with profitability issues.
Notably, the halving event does not only control inflation and maintain the scarcity of Bitcoin over time but also significantly influences the cost of Bitcoin production. “One cent per kWh [kilowatt-hour] change in the electricity cost induces a $4,300 change in the Bitcoin production cost,” noted JPMorgan analysts.
Ramping up for halving
Historically, halving events have been met with significant price surges for Bitcoin, marking profitable times for miners. The years 2012, 2016, and 2020 witnessed post-halving price hikes by 8,450%, 290%, and 560%, respectively. However, Bloomberg warns that the forthcoming event could throw miners’ profits into the red.
Crucially, the game’s rules are changing. Miners now face rising electricity costs and an escalating debt burden. The challenge lies in balancing these increasing operational costs with efficiency and technological advancement, which until now, have compensated for the reduced mining rewards.
Jaran Mellerud of Hashrate Index warned that nearly 50% of Bitcoin miners have suboptimal efficiency in their mining operations, making them vulnerable to the anticipated halving. For such miners, the break-even electricity price is expected to drop dramatically, from $0.12/kilowatt-hour to $0.06/kWh.
The combination of a growing debt burden and rising miner competition – mining difficulty hit a record high in June – could significantly erode miner profit margins. For miners to maintain their current profit margins, Kevin Zhang of Foundry predicts that Bitcoin prices would need to rise to $50,000-$60,000 next year.
As Bitcoin miners strive to balance their books, the upcoming halving event is set to separate the wheat from the chaff. Those who manage their power costs effectively and secure their pricing from power providers in advance may emerge relatively unscathed. However, for others, as Tiffany Wang, CEO of BTC miner Lotta Yotta, predicts, they could be driven out of the market altogether.
