ETH/USDT trend analysis: volatility increases as Ethereum breaks through 550 USD

TL:DR Breakdown

  • Ethereum (ETH) has broken through 550 USD showing a strong rally towards 600 USD.
  • Trading volume spiked to support the rally, but has since decreased.
  • Volatility has significantly increased, suggesting a correction is due.

Overview (48-hour)

Ethereum (ETH) opened trading at 507.93 USD, with a high of 561.59 USD (+10.56%) and a low of 500.00 USD. At the time of writing, ETH/USDT has risen again to 530.43 USD (+4.5%), sitting just below the high/low average of 530.80 USD. 

The total trading volume for ETH/USDT up until the time of writing is 1,479,000 ETH, compared to 1,369,000 ETH for the same period yesterday, representing an increase in trading volume of 8.04%.

The historical Volatility Index (HVI) on the 1D reads 74.15 (medium) at the time of writing compared to 68.39 on yesterday’s close.

Price Analysis

ETH/USDT trend analysis: volatility increases as Ethereum breaks through 550 USD 4

ETH/USDT started the trading period in a previously established support zone between 502.59 USD and 508.79 USD which it used as the base to attempt a breakout which finished at 514.40 USD. It then returned to this support zone, attempting a break out twice more to around 518 USD over the next several hours.

After 3 attempted breakouts, ETH/USDT finally used the support zone to successfully breakout, rallying towards its high of 561.59 USD. This rally saw a swift 8.96% correction to 511.28 USD. At the time of writing, ETH/USDT is at 530.43 USD but remains volatile (see white circle on chart above).

Volume Analysis

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Trading volume for ETH/USDT opened at 41,597 ETH, with a mean value of 39,853 ETH from the previous period. Mean trading volume saw a steady decline to a low of 16,092 ETH, corresponding with the attempted breakouts in price.

This preceded a strong spike in trading volume to 78,404 ETH, which supported the beginning of the rally to the period’s high. This brought the mean trading volume up to 41,602 ETH. On ETH/USDT’s correction, volume spiked to 126,069 ETH (see blue arrow on chart above).

On Balance Volume (OBV) spiked on the successful breakout, but has since been declining with a sharp dip corresponding with the correction (see white circle on chart above). However, Accumulation/Distribution (Acc/Distr) has maintained a steady increase since open.

At the time of writing, trading volume has settled at 13,203 ETH, with the mean value at 35,201 ETH.

Volatility Analysis

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Compared to the last period, HVI maintained a relatively higher value throughout the period. Opening at 10.80 (high), volatility continued to increase, reaching a high of 19.95 (extremely high) as ETH/USDT rose to its high and swiftly corrected.

At the time of writing, HVI stands at 15.12 (extremely high).

Price prediction

ETH/USDT has maintained and increased its high level of volatility carried over from the last trading period, spending a notable amount of time in the ‘extremely high’ levels. These levels of volatility represent high levels of price uncertainty.

In addition, although trading volume spiked significantly during this period and Acc/Distr has steadily risen, trading volume ended lower than it was on opening.

It is difficult to say where the price will go given all of the above. The conditions suggest a further correction or ranging market is likely, however, an in-flow of volume could push ETH/USDT to another high before the volatility becomes too much.

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