Modern supercomputers have come a long way since the post-World War II era when machines like Maniac were used for weather modeling and nuclear explosion simulations. Today’s fastest supercomputers have a staggering capacity for calculations, and a significant portion of their capabilities are dedicated to weather forecasting and defense applications. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) using supercomputers has proven immensely beneficial, with research estimating its annual benefits at $162 billion. However, integrating machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to enhance weather forecasting further, making it more accurate and accessible to a broader audience.
The success of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) has become integral to modern life, benefiting sectors such as agriculture, defense, and everyday decision-making. The accuracy of weather forecasts has improved significantly over the years, leading to more informed choices for people, such as whether to carry an umbrella based on a forecaster’s advice.
AI’s role in improving weather forecasting
The integration of machine learning and other forms of AI is set to revolutionize weather forecasting. Instead of relying solely on high-resolution calculations performed by supercomputers based on current conditions and physical laws, AI systems can be trained on past weather data to provide forecasts that match or surpass those generated by traditional NWP methods. AI’s potential goes beyond just matching existing forecasts; it can uncover previously unexplored aspects of weather behavior, expanding the scope of weather prediction.
Additionally, the cost-effectiveness of AI will attract new entrants into the weather forecasting business, leading to innovative products tailored to specific customer needs and the exploration of new markets.
The Three Key Steps to Maximize AI Potential
To harness the full potential of AI in weather forecasting, three essential steps need to be taken:
Balancing competition and infrastructure
While healthy competition is essential for progress, it must not undermine the fundamental infrastructure of weather forecasting. Governmental organizations predominantly dominate NWP and invest significant effort in assimilating global weather observations into consistent representations used by their models. These costs can be offset by selling high-value forecasts in niche markets. To ensure AI can be trained on this valuable data without negatively impacting existing forecasters, a modus vivendi must be established, allowing new entrants access to data without undermining the existing system.
AI and climate change modeling
AI can also play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Currently, running climate models at the resolution used for weather forecasting is not feasible due to computational limitations. However, emerging hardware designed for AI systems could offer a potential solution, enabling higher-resolution climate models. Additionally, AI can be used to identify patterns in climate projections, making them more informative and accessible to non-experts.
Early warning systems for disaster preparedness
Early warning systems have proven to be life-saving in disaster preparedness. By providing 24-hour notice of potential destructive weather events, damages can be reduced significantly. Investment in early-warning systems for developing countries and AI and mobile phone technology can prevent billions of dollars in annual losses. The World Meteorological Organisation has prioritized achieving “Early Warnings for All” by 2027, ensuring disaster alerts reach those in need.
Integrating AI into weather forecasting presents a unique opportunity to revolutionize the field and save lives. The potential benefits are immense by striking a balance between competition and infrastructure, leveraging AI for climate change modeling, and investing in early warning systems. Although no grand breakthroughs are required, focused efforts and determination can significantly advance weather forecasting and disaster preparedness, positively impacting millions of lives and livelihoods.
