Following Ripple's partial victory over the SEC, it was ruled XRP does not constitute a security concerning programmatic sales. What is a realistic price prediction following this decision, and what is it based on?
Popular Twitter personality Shannon Thorp was recently asked to give a price prediction for XRP with no time frame or a set idea of circulating supply or the dollar amount it equates to. Thorp has noticed a trend among the XRP followers (the #XRPArmy as they are better known on Twitter) and found the camp to be divided. One side bases their future views and prediction based solely on charts, taking guidance from past price action and trends that Bitcoin – the biggest crypto by market cap, follows to determine short-term price predictions. The other side bases their views on Ripple and XRP's utility. This camp of XRP supporters is of the opinion that partnerships and the replacement of "antiquated systems" will determine XRP's price.
People have long asked what will be the price of $XRP, when will this “utility” come? In my opinion, now more than ever I see a divided #XRPArmy! One side looking at only charts, taking cues from the past and trends that follow Bitcoin to draw short term price predictions. Whilst…
— Shannon Thorp (@thorpshannon87) July 29, 2023
Thorp believes no side is correct since XRP does not constitute a security. In Ms Thorp's view, it is wrong to continue making price predictions for XRP as a "security."
After the XRP ruling, the FedNow announcement and the US Congress passing its proposed crypto regulation bill to Senate, estimates of XRP's future price have come under question.
Vahil Capital released a white paper on XRP's price, which indicates XRP's price could reach anywhere between $3,500 and $21,900. Vahil based its predictions on two years of research and six distinct quantitative models. The VC firm's prediction has been met with shock and scepticism, to say the least, and this apprehension is based on chart analysts stating the chart does not allow for such a prediction.
Ms Thorp was quick to call out an issue with the charts:She argues that if a range for XRP is set at $1.00 - $5.00, what it ultimately means is that if one company owned all the XRP tokens in circulation, then yes, it would mean that that company in possession of all 100 billion tokens would have a Liquidity Strength of (LS) anywhere between $100B - $500B - bear in mind that is a burn rate for every transaction regardless of the amount. An LS such as this does not factor for economic growth, messaging and settling and does not account for the benefits of using XRP.
Thorp explains the situation concerning SWIFT – SWIFT is one of the systems Ripple aims to improve on. As it stands, SWIFT handles 44.8 million messages in a day, does not include settlements, and at this point, is only half of what Ripple can do. Based on a $7 trillion value for SWIFT in a day (not 24/7 or 365). She suggests that if Ripple, in its ten years of innovation and partnerships, has only gained 30% of SWIFTs value, it would put XRP's daily value at $2.1 trillion (about 13.2 million messages). XRP settles in 1 -5 seconds, and the liquidity would be there. However, settlements are fast, but if a user were to send a $750 million transaction with an LS of $1.00, for argument's sake, it equates to 10% of all that bank's XRP.
To determine a price prediction, Thorp follows the following logic:Considering all banks globally, all the XRP that has been burnt through other transactions, all the XRP tokens all its holder own, and all the XRP given to other large banks and the XRP tokens awarded to its creators. Then account for the XRP on liquidity hubs and exchanges and present an amount representing a range, using 50B-75B XRP at any one-time support LS. Then spread that across 300 -1000 banks, liquidity providers and governments.
The math follows:75 billion XRP at $1.00 amounts to $75 billion. Take $75B and divide by 1,000 banks equals $75 million XRP/dollars for each bank or liquidity provider. Further, assume big banks hold more XRP than small banks, and small banks would use liquidity providers. Then consider that Ripple has released all the XRP tokens to reach a circulating supply of 75 billion.
LS would be $75M per bank, and a top-tier bank such as J.P. Morgan moves more than $8 trillion a day and considers service overlaps with SWIFT and the assumption that Ripple only has 10% of the market ($800 billion). This movement only accounts for cross-border transactions, not CBDCs, derivatives, real estate, NFTs and technical parallels. Vahil Capital's price prediction and logic do not seem so outrageous anymore.
Thorp finally comes to her own price prediction. The Twitter personality has placed her prediction anywhere from $100 - $500 in the short term of four to seven months. She argues that it all comes down to LS if XRP is $100 at a supply of only 50 billion, which equates to an LS of $5 trillion and at $500 makes an LS of $25 trillion. The logic is that this gives the market room to grow and breathe and ensures that no one company needs to own billions of XRP tokens for day-to-day operation.
XRP Is On the Rise But Has Not Even Reached $1While the ruling was highly bullish for XRP, and the price soared over 100% following Judge Torres's order, it has not continued its momentum. XRP reached a high of $0.84 on July 19 but currently trades at $0.66.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
