It was a relatively quiet week on Crypto Twitter (X), reflecting the week’s sluggish market news cycle. Nevertheless, this meant a much-needed recovery period for virtually every prominent crypto. On the other hand, Bitcoin begins the new week battling $26,000 as August becomes its worst month of 2023.
How’s the crypto market performing?
Following Judge Annalisa Torres’ judgment that XRP is not a security, XRP rallied last month. It was widely regarded as a significant victory for the token issuer Ripple, a corporation engaged in a legal battle with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
Previously, the crypto-skeptic regulator asserted that all cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin are securities. However, the gains from that victory were short-lived. XRP tanked on the news that the SEC would appeal the case.
This week, the market cap of chipmaker Nvidia surpassed that of cryptocurrencies due to the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) technology, one of the company’s hardware offerings. Don’t forget that miners are also Nvidia customers.
The team’s multi-sig Ethereum address transferred 16.045 trillion PEPE, valued at $16.85 million at the time, to Binance, OKX, KuCoin, and Bybit on Thursday, as the value of the meme coin continued to plummet for the second consecutive week. And that wasn’t all that it did.
Crypto markets this week – What to prepare for
September is a historically weak month for Bitcoin, and with the August monthly close just days away, could another downside surprise be in store?
This week, macro triggers are once more taking a backseat, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data being the highlight of an otherwise quiet week for crypto contagion.
Despite this, traders and analysts are vigilant; many are preparing for further declines with no sign of a turnaround in sight.
1. Turn for the currencies
For the dollar- On Tuesday, consumer confidence and JOLTs job openings begin off the week. Fed Chair Powell hinted at more rate hikes on Friday. Consumer confidence rising and job vacancies remaining stable would support a more hawkish Fed policy outlook. Consumer confidence is boosted by tight labor market circumstances, which fuels consumption and demand-driven inflation.
ADP nonfarm employment movement and Q2 GDP numbers must be considered on Wednesday. The ADP results have traditionally deviated from the US Jobs Report. Thus, the impact on risk sentiment should be limited. However, changes to Q2 GDP figures would shift the needle.
The PCE Price Index Report will influence market sentiment toward monetary policy and unemployment claims numbers. A drop in initial jobless claims, an increase in consumer expenditure, and persistent inflation would increase bets on a September Fed rate move.
The US Jobs Report, which is due out on Friday, might confirm the Fed’s policy stance. The focus will be on wage growth and nonfarm payroll figures. A stable unemployment rate and an increase in wage growth would drive hawkish Fed bets.
For the Euro – The EUR will be influenced by preliminary August inflation figures, as well as consumer mood and expenditure figures.
The GfK German Consumer Climate results on Tuesday will be closely watched ahead of German inflation figures on Wednesday. Lower inflation and a decline in consumer mood would provide bearish price signals.
Eurozone inflation, German retail sales, and German unemployment numbers must all be taken into account (Thursday). Another drop in German retail sales, along with deteriorating labor market conditions, would put buyer appetite to the test. However, the focus will be on Eurozone inflation.
On Thursday, French GDP, inflation, and consumer mood figures will almost certainly take a back seat to those from Germany and the Eurozone.
The manufacturing sector PMI statistics for August bring a conclusion to a busy week. Following the disastrous August preliminary statistics, changes to the Flash numbers and the Italian PMI should have a greater impact.
2. Bitcoin crash could lead to a catastrophic crypto week
There are no prizes for predicting how Bitcoin closed its most recent weekly candle, particularly if one is familiar with previous closes.
BTC/USD dropped to $25,880 before stabilizing marginally higher, according to TradingView data, despite holding steady at $26,000 at the close.
Bitcoin has underperformed this month, even by August standards, which have rarely given supporters cause for celebration.
The BTC/USD exchange rate is down 11% this month, and as the weekly close approaches, market observers are growing anxious.
A comparison of data from the surveillance resource CoinGlass reveals that August 2023 is already competing with August 2022 to be Bitcoin’s worst August since August 2015. The BTC price dropped 13.9% in August 2022, marking the beginning of a painful half-year.
However, based on past patterns, others believe that September might easily end up being virtually as awful for BTC and the general crypto industry.
Crypto’s longest bear market
Meanwhile, by examining year-on-year (YoY) percentage returns for BTC/USD, the actual depth of the recent bear market becomes obvious.
According to Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading business Eight, Bitcoin has seen the “longest bear market in history.” In recent thoughts on the crypto market, he stated:
Right now, price of Bitcoin is nowhere near the valuation of the peak in November ’21. It’s down more than 50% and in a bear market of 490 days.
Michaël van de Poppe
An accompanying chart contrasted the current 490-day negative YoY returns to earlier periods, with 2015 lasting 386 days.
Van de Poppe said that even good news items, such as the upcoming approval of the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), had not yet permeated market consciousness.
Hash rate outlook for the crypto market
Could Bitcoin miners provide investors with a silver lining before the end of the year? As previously reported, one theory predicts that miners will bid up the price of Bitcoin during the fourth quarter in anticipation of the April 2024 block subsidy halving, which will reduce their reward per mined block by 50%.
They should join “smart money” in doing so, generating their own excitement around the halving narrative, even if the broader market typically reacts to emission changes only after the fact.
The hash rate is an estimate of the processing power devoted to mining. While it is impossible to measure it precisely, figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode indicate not only new all-time highs, but also a flurry of upward adjustments in contrast to stagnant or declining BTC price performance.
Last week, Bitcoin also experienced one of its steepest difficulty increases of 2023, bringing the on-chain fundamental benchmark to all-time highs.
