The global banking sector finds itself in uncharted territory, contending with a series of unconventional challenges that have recently surfaced. These issues, such as surging interest rates, market unpredictability, and the influence of social media, have rocked the foundations of traditional banking practices, necessitating a reevaluation of risk management strategies.
Impending regulatory revisions in the banking sector
Regulators worldwide are advocating for new regulations that would replace banks’ internal risk assessments with standardized metrics determined by supervisory bodies. The primary goal is to bolster capital adequacy and safeguard against operational losses, including cyberattacks, fraud, and market turbulence. This represents a notable shift from the industry’s reliance on in-house risk evaluation models.
However, it is worth highlighting that not all regulatory authorities have uniformly embraced these changes. For instance, in the United States, regulators have opted for less stringent standards for banks with assets below $700 billion, exempting them from accounting for unrealized market losses on investments available for sale when calculating capital levels. This decision has proven detrimental, with some banks experiencing deposit runs due to adverse developments in treasury fixed-income securities, thereby exposing the vulnerabilities inherent in this approach.
Transitioning from asset-centric to liability-centric
One critical aspect currently under scrutiny is the shift from an asset-centric approach to a liability-centric one, particularly regarding Non-Maturity Deposits (NMDs). The risk of sudden bank closures arises when less stable sources fund longer-term assets. Both regulators and banks must adapt to incorporate new dimensions when simulating crises, as overly simplistic assumptions may not accurately reflect the liquidity risks specific to individual banks.
Pakistan’s distinctive strategy
In contrast to the global standard, Pakistan has chosen a divergent course. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has steadfastly maintained the practice of accounting for unrealized market losses on investments available for sale when determining capital, irrespective of a bank’s size. This unique measure has effectively shielded Pakistani banks from their global counterparts’ risks.
Traditionally, Pakistan relied entirely on fixed-rate government securities. However, the government’s introduction of floating rate bonds a few years ago has drastically altered the landscape. These floating rate bonds now constitute over two-thirds of the total outstanding securities, providing a buffer against market risk in a high-interest rate environment.
Social media’s influence on liquidity
Another unconventional risk emanates from the sway of social media over banks’ liquidity requirements. Recent events in the USA and Europe have demonstrated how misinformation on social media can lead to rapid deposit outflows. Banks lost deposits via digital channels as customers reacted to perceived risks. However, in many instances, this liquidity predicament resulted from misperception rather than a genuine risk.
The integration of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) frameworks into banks’ stress testing is gaining prominence from a risk assessment standpoint. Despite its relatively minor contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan faces a high susceptibility to climate change-induced disasters. Recognizing this risk, the SBP has already unveiled a roadmap for mitigation.
AI as a transformative force
Amid these evolving risks, artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a transformative tool. While AI has predominantly found use in marketing, there is a growing imperative to extend its applications into compliance, control, credit, and other vital domains. AI’s capacity to rapidly and accurately analyze vast datasets can significantly enhance risk management capabilities.
Navigating unprecedented challenges
The global banking sector stands at a pivotal juncture. Unconventional risks are reshaping the landscape, compelling banks to adapt their risk management strategies. The recent upheaval in financial markets underscores the importance of reassessing capital and liquidity requirements and considering the impact of accounting policies on reported regulatory capital.
Effectively addressing these risks represents a complex challenge requiring collaboration and forward thinking. All stakeholders, including regulatory bodies, banks, and the broader financial community, must collaborate in crafting effective risk mitigation strategies. With an open-minded approach, a willingness to share information generously, and a forward-looking perspective, the industry can successfully navigate these unconventional challenges and ensure resilience in an era of ongoing uncertainty.
