The crypto market is poised for yet another eventful week, as several developments are set to unfold, from the anticipated approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US to macro events that have implications on the broader financial markets.
Undoubtedly, the largest point of contention within the Bitcoin and crypto markets remains the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, as Bitcoinist reported earlier today. But there’s more to come this week.
Macro Events Impacting Bitcoin And Crypto
While major macro events are sparse this week, they’re far from insignificant. Key events include:
- Tuesday: US retail sales
- Wednesday: US building permits, housing sales data, Tesla earnings report (change in the Bitcoin balance sheet?)
- Thursday: US jobless claims, existing home sales, and notably, Fed chair Powell’s speech.
The financial community is on high alert regarding Powell’s upcoming speech. After a recent rise in US inflation above expectations in both CPI and PPI and the tense situation in the bond market, the market will be very keen to hear what Powell has to say. Is he signaling that there may have to be another rate hike to beat inflation, or is Powell emphasizing the tight situation in the bond market, which could make further rate hikes obsolete? Several Fed Speakers highlighted this in recent speeches.
A prevalent sentiment suggests that the surge in bond yields has been inherently serving to constrict financial conditions. Yet, an ironic twist is apparent: the dovish narratives by Fed officials asserting the absence of a need for tighter policies seemed to counteract these constraints, leading to a relaxation of the initially tightened conditions. Powell’s opinion on these circumstances could also affect the Bitcoin and crypto market.
Remarkably, this is the last week of Fed speakers before a two-week blackout period before the next FOMC meeting from October 31 to November 1. The significance could therefore be particularly high.
Remarkably, amidst this uncertainty, Gold is up 5.6% over the past six days, driven by a combination of macro events such as central bank policies and the Israel-Hamas war. According to some analysts, like MacroScope, this is a bullish sign for Bitcoin. He explained that “based on the historical lead/lag relationship between gold and BTC (gold leads, then BTC catches up), BTC should be watched closely for a move [up].”
Noteworthy Crypto Events
In the altcoin universe, notable events encompass Axie Infinity’s (AXS) impending unlock of $64 million worth of tokens on October 20, marking a substantial 11.5% of its circulating supply. The spotlight also rests on the Arbitrum ecosystem, fresh from its grant voting phase. The ramifications of these grants, particularly concerning ecosystem incentives, could be notable. Protocols like GMX, MUX, and Camelot have emerged as frontrunners in grant allocation.
Elgorand’s (EGLD) xDay Conference by MultiversX, set for October 19, is also poised to generate buzz, given the historical importance and revelations from its past conferences. Lastly, ApeCoin’s (APE) forthcoming unlock of $16.7 million in APE on October 17, predominantly directed towards its founding team and early contributors, has analysts anticipating potential price fluctuations.
While this week might not be as jam-packed as the previous ones, the ramifications of these events could shape the trajectory of the crypto market in the weeks to come.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $27,844, up 3.5% in the last 24 hours.
