A recent survey conducted by ETF issuer Bitwise revealed a prevailing skepticism among U.S.-based financial advisers regarding approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024. The survey, which included a diverse group of financial professionals such as registered investment advisers (RIAs), financial planners, institutional investors, and wirehouse representatives, indicated that only 39% of the participants anticipate the approval of a Bitcoin ETF this year. This finding starkly contrasts the optimism of certain experts who had earlier predicted a potential approval by January 10, 2024.
Long-term outlook still positive
Despite the prevalent doubt for 2024, the survey highlighted long-term confidence in the eventual approval of a Bitcoin ETF. About 87% of the advisers believe that the approval will occur at some point in the future. Specifically, 22% expect it in 2025, while 24% foresee it happening after 2025. Interestingly, a small fraction (2%) had anticipated a 2023 approval, which did not come to fruition. Again, about, 12% of the respondents believed that the Bitcoin ETF might never receive approval.
The survey also shed light on the eagerness among advisers for an approved Bitcoin ETF, with many expressing a desire to invest in Bitcoin for their clients or themselves. Notably, 88% of these advisers preferred to invest post the approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the U.S.
Regulatory hurdles and future expectations
The journey towards the approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. has been fraught with regulatory challenges. Notably, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been hesitant to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, a significant development occurred in June 2023 when Grayscale successfully appealed against the SEC’s rejection of its Bitcoin ETF proposal. This led the SEC to reconsider their application.
The industry is now closely watching the SEC, which faces a January 10 deadline to decide on the ARK 21 Shares spot Bitcoin ETF. Additionally, decisions on other funds are expected by March. This period is critical as it may set the precedent for future approvals and the overall trajectory of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. financial landscape.
In summary, according to financial advisers, while the short-term outlook for a Bitcoin ETF approval in 2024 is bleak, the long-term perspective remains hopeful.
