The legendary Arthur Hayes is laying it on thick again, calling out the cautious and the conservative in the crypto community with a relentless fervor that’s both unapologetic and harsh. His message is clear. You’re messing up if you’re not all-in on crypto right now.
Here’s the full breakdown of his latest tirade, loaded with hard truths and a call to arms for the true believers.
Crypto Mastery: More Than Just Luck
Arthur kicks off by shredding the notion that recent high rollers in the crypto game are the true masters. He calls out those who lucked out buying Solana under $10 and selling at $200, indicating that while the profit was sweet, the strategy was short-sighted for those who reverted to fiat currency instead of investing in Bitcoin.
According to Arthur, “Bitcoin is the hardest money ever created,” and shifting your crypto gains into continually inflating fiat currencies is a colossal blunder. He states unequivocally, “Fiat will continue to be printed ad infinitum until the system resets,” painting a grim picture of traditional currency’s future.
The Bull Market Phenomenon
When it comes to cryptocurrency trading, Arthur sees the bull market as a rare and golden opportunity that too many fail to ride effectively. He criticizes the majority who operate with a bell curve mentality—playing it safe and reasoning with the market. Instead, Arthur champions the “Left Curve” mindset: buying, holding, and buying more—ignoring the temptation to sell in a booming market.
He confesses his own moments of self-doubt, where he feels like a “beta cuck loser,” only to shake himself back to the reality of a major macroeconomic shift favoring crypto.
He notes that major economies are devaluing their currencies, essentially setting the stage for traditional finance to pivot clients towards preserving wealth through cryptocurrencies, particularly via Bitcoin ETFs in the US, UK, and soon Hong Kong.
Despite temporary weaknesses due to predictable events like the April 15th US tax payments and the Bitcoin halving, Arthur is bullish about the sustained rise in crypto prices.
He reminds us that what worked to get Bitcoin from zero in 2009 to $70,000 in 2024 is just the beginning, forecasting an outrageous potential of reaching $1,000,000. This isn’t based on wishful thinking but on a sturdy macroeconomic setup where the surge in fiat liquidity that initially fueled Bitcoin’s rise is expected to intensify.
Economic Fundamentals: Government Debt and GDP
Arthur takes a deep dive into the fundamental economic roles of governments, criticizing their management of finances. He discusses how governments often choose to fund significant projects through debt rather than taxation, using the example of a hydroelectric dam to illustrate how this can either benefit the economy or lead to a financial imbalance.
He explains how these actions lead to ‘malinvestment’ where initial worthy investments degrade in quality over time due to political pressures, ultimately harming the economic growth they were meant to strengthen.
Further, he lambasts the manipulation of government bond yields by central banks, which artificially lowers them to funnel public savings into government debt, suppressing real investment returns. He describes this as financial repression that promotes poor investment on a large scale and eventually necessitates financial crisis management that tends to favor prolonged economic stagnation over immediate turmoil.
Politics, Global Economy and Their Impact on Crypto
Drawing a connection between economic policies and political agendas, Arthur points out how politicians often prioritize short-term electoral gains over sound economic strategies.
He predicts that the upcoming elections in major nation-states, particularly the US, will see increased government spending, regardless of the economic health or the necessity of the spending, simply to secure electoral victories.
He cites the manipulation of GDP growth through increased government expenditure as a tactic likely to be employed extensively, especially given the current political climate in the US, which may mirror strategies seen in autocratic regimes like China.
Arthur finishes his essay with a rallying cry to the crypto community, urging them to stay invested, embrace the volatility, and capitalize on the opportunities that a mismanaged fiscal policy presents to a finite, decentralized asset like Bitcoin. His parting shot labels those ready to maximize this opportunity as “glorious degenerate pieces of shit,” calling them to lean into the Left Curve without reservation.
