Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, has made an offer to purchase all of Germany’s Bitcoin holdings. He aims to minimize the impact on the market.
Justin’s exact words were, “I am willing to negotiate with the German government to purchase all BTC off-market in order to minimize the impact on the market.”
The German government has been busy transferring its Bitcoin reserves to exchanges. On July 4th, the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) moved around $75 million worth of Bitcoin in multiple transactions. These funds were distributed across exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp.
Germany’s steady offloading of Bitcoin
Since mid-June, Germany has shifted approximately $315 million in Bitcoin to various platforms. In under a month, Germany has offloaded over $390 million in Bitcoin.
This activity follows the BKA’s 2013 seizure of nearly 50,000 Bitcoin linked to the former operator of the film piracy website Movie2K. This stash is estimated to be worth $2.3 billion at today’s prices.
The steady flow of Bitcoin to exchanges signals Germany’s potential plans to liquidate parts of its reserves. This has sparked fears of a negative impact on Bitcoin’s market price, which dipped below $58,000 this week.
However, the amounts transferred so far make up a relatively small share of the BKA’s massive Bitcoin trove. After the latest movements, Germany still holds around 40,000 Bitcoin.
The sales are similar to recent transfers by the U.S. government. America also holds Bitcoin confiscated from criminal cases, leading to concerns it may be selling reserves.
The timing of these sales is critical, as creditor repayments from Mt. Gox’s 2014 collapse are set to begin in July, threatening to compound selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Market reaction and analysis
QCP Capital’s analysis provides insight into the current market situation. On July 4th, they reported another day of heavy selling pressure, causing Bitcoin to fall below the $60,000 support level, reaching lows of $57,875.
They also noted that Bitcoin miners are showing signs of capitulation. Historically, this has been associated with a bottom in prices, with the last comparable hash rate drawdown occurring in 2022 when Bitcoin traded at $17,000.
Despite the sell-off in crypto, the options market remains optimistic. Interest is heavily skewed towards Ethereum calls for September and December expiries. There are several factors that could cause prices to break this downtrend.
First, liquidation clusters on Bitcoin and Ethereum are heavily skewed to the topside, opening up potential short squeezes. Second, with S-1 Form approvals around the corner, an approval may result in a hard bounce in Ethereum.
They propose an Ethereum KIKO (Knock-In, Knock-Out) strategy. The expiry is set for September 27, 2024. The idea is to sell a 3,000 put (Knock-in: 2,500) and buy a 3,600 call (Knock-out: 5,500) at zero cost.
The maximum payout is 271.96% per annum or $1,900 USD per ETH if the spot expires just below 5,500. The downside is that at expiry, if the spot is below 2,500, you buy ETH at 3,000 (Spot reference: 3,210).
Reporting by Jai Hamid
