Bitcoin doesn’t need Donald Trump or any political figure to remain dominant. The idea that the queen of cryptocurrencies will collapse if Trump loses the presidential election is an overblown take by some investors and analysts.
Although I understand that this belief comes from looking at how Bitcoin has reacted to past elections and the relationship between politics and crypto regulation.
But here’s the reality: Bitcoin is bigger than any one election or leader. It’s a global asset that has proven time and time again that it can survive ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING.
Historically, Bitcoin often bottoms out before election season and tends to rally leading up to election day. This has happened in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
In fact, prices surged in the months following these elections, usually peaking about a year after the vote. So yeah, the long-term trend has been upward. That doesn’t change no matter who inherits the Oval Office.
Bitcoin and the 2024 political climate
After dunking on it for years, Trump came out as pro-crypto earlier this year. He’s promising to make things easier for Bitcoin if he wins. His campaign includes ideas like building a national Bitcoin stockpile and creating a Bitcoin advisory council.
As a result, Bitcoin’s price has had some ups and downs, with a recent dip after a debate between Trump and Kamala Harris, where some felt his chances looked shaky.
On the other hand, Kamala hasn’t made her position on crypto clear at all, which has left a lot of investors worried. Analysts say a Kamala win could mean stricter regulations, which might put pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Some are even predicting that if she wins, Bitcoin could fall to $40,000. As James Davies, co-founder at Crypto Valley Exchange explained, while a Kamala presidency might make things tough for startups, the industry would still push forward.
Bitcoin has become more institutionalized over the years, especially with this year’s launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The market’s current situation
Bitcoin’s price has bounced between $55,000 and $70,000 throughout 2024, with a peak of over $73,000 in March. After the debate, Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $55,534.
It’s clear that traders are adjusting their positions based on how they think the vote will go. But it’s not just the election that’s moving markets right now. Next week, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again. The CME Group data shows there’s an 87% chance of a 25 basis point cut and only a 13% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
With all these moving parts, the market volatility seems to be calming down.
In the long run, Bitcoin’s path isn’t going to be determined by Trump’s win or loss but by larger economic forces.
Steven Lubka, from Swan Bitcoin, predicts Bitcoin’s price will hit six figures by 2025, no matter who wins. But Trump supporters are convinced that his win will send Bitcoin to new heights.
Analysts at Bernstein even predicted that a Trump victory could push Bitcoin to an all-time high of $80,000. They also noted that a Kamala win could drop Bitcoin as low as $40,000.
James Davies pointed out that:
“Crypto needs to learn from traditional finance. It needs to work with both sides and keep growing, no matter who is in power.”
The fear of a Kamala presidency comes from the Biden administration’s hostility towards crypto. But there’s not much reason to think Kamala would be as tough on the industry. In fact, Lubka said that the signs point to a cooling down of the anti-crypto rhetoric from the Biden era.
All in all, this election season has been better for crypto than past ones. What we’re seeing here is a more mature, more institutionalized Bitcoin. It’s not going to crumble just because one candidate loses.
Investors should stop obsessing over who wins and focus on the macro trends that really drive this market.
