A widely followed crypto analyst is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto could be seeing red this month based on historical seasonality.
In a new video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 810,000 YouTube subscribers that September has historically delivered negative returns for BTC more often than not.
1:30:- “I started noticing a pattern for Bitcoin. And essentially what it was, was that we just had red September after red September after red September. 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020… What you’ll notice, though, no matter how you look at your averages, no matter what years you ignore, September tends to not be that great.”
Cowen also says he is closely watching the inversion of the 10-year yields (US10Y) and the 2-year yields (US2Y) this month. Market observers often see the inversion as a signal of a coming recession, and the “uninversion” as the completion of the signal.
10:40:- “The 2-year and the 10-year yields are almost un-inverted. If you look at the 2-year, it’s 3.921 the 10-year is 3.907. So they’re actually really close to un-inverting… There’s a chance that you will see the 10-year and the 2-year un-invert in September, which could certainly change things.”
Lastly, Cowen warns that based on historic precedence the TOTAL3 chart, which tracks the market capitalization of all crypto assets excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins, could perform poorly against Bitcoin (TOTAL3/BTC) in September as the Fed is expected to cut rates this month.
11:23:- “The other thing I want to mention for September are alt/Bitcoin pairs. Because if you look at alt/Bitcoin pairs last cycle, just look at them last cycle, and you see kind of where they broke down. The first monthly close below support was one month before the first rate cut. It was in June [2019]. That was one month before the first rate cut. And then July alt/Bitcoin pairs continued to go down, and they extended it even into August. And you can see that we’re starting to have monthly closes below support over here, and coincidentally, the Fed’s likely going to cut rates.”
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