Another surge in the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate shows signs of efficacy, according to the chief economist. There is a distinct cooling effect on the labour market, simultaneously alleviating inflationary pressures. These are not merely hopeful conjectures but data-backed facts.
Inflation takes a backseat, labour market cools
In the wake of the Bank of England boosting interest rates to an astonishing 15-year high of 5.25%, Huw Pill delivered a public online presentation detailing the Bank of England’s recent forecasts.
He emphasized that the impact of continuous monetary tightening had begun to materialize. As the cost of essential goods and energy experienced a dip, headline inflation also witnessed a similar trend.
This tightening monetary policy, he asserts, has started to trim the chances of stubborn inflation becoming a long-term economy disruptor.
Pill maintains a hopeful stance regarding the gradual decline in wage growth, even as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintains that the present speed of pay growth is incompatible with a 2% inflation target. In his words, monetary tightening is doing what it’s designed to do: work.
Interest rates and the responsive economy
Pill and five of his MPC colleagues endorsed Thursday’s 0.25 percentage point elevation, marking the 14th sequential interest rate hike since December 2021. However, the real test will take place on September 21 when the nine-member panel is set to vote on another potential rise.
The decisive factors for the next rate vote will be the two upcoming monthly releases of data on inflation and the state of the labour market. A significant twist in Pill’s narrative is his insinuation that the current interest rates have started to pressurize the economy.
If the MPC continues to uphold these high rates, the burden on inflation is expected to persist.
Global monetary policies appear to be inclining towards a less hawkish stance. Elizabeth Martins, a senior economist at HSBC, suggests that the Bank of England is no exception to this trend, despite grappling with high core inflation and wage growth.
Forecasts for the future are trending towards stability. With the economy already feeling the squeeze of interest rates, Martins anticipates the MPC will only seek one more hike in September, after which the rates will stay high throughout 2024.
The aftermath of this monetary tightening is expected to filter slowly into UK households, mainly due to an increase in homeowners adopting fixed-rate mortgages. The pinch of higher costs will be felt only when these homeowners decide to refinance.
However, other impacts of soaring interest rates, including a fortified exchange rate and housing investment downturn, are already becoming apparent. The Bank of England believes these effects are starting to take hold without any abnormal time delay.
Despite Pill’s assurance that the MPC is striking a balance between the risks, one can’t help but question the potential economic dangers caused by an excessive tightening policy.
All things considered, the BoE’s strategies seem to be hitting their mark. However, the question remains, at what cost? The consequences of these policies on the economy are yet to be fully understood. Until then, it’s a high-stakes game of wait and see.
