The Bank of Japan surprised many today by raising its short-term interest rate to 0.25%. This is the second increase in recent months, as the BOJ attempts to curb the yen’s decline against the US dollar and move towards more normal monetary policies.
Our financial markets’ response was immediate and massive. The Tokyo stock market felt it first. Initially, stocks dropped by 0.4%, as investors braced for the BOJ’s announcement.
But after the rate hike, the market rebounded. The rate hike was seen as a sign that Japan’s economy might be stronger than previously thought. But what would that mean for the dollar, and the global economy?
Currency markets react to Japan’s decision
The yen made a strong comeback against the US dollar, appreciating by 1.8%. It hit an intraday high of 150.05 yen per dollar, a level not seen since March.
The BOJ’s decision and hints at future hikes made the yen more attractive to investors. The global currency markets also felt the ripple effects.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, dipped by 0.3%. The dollar has gotten pretty weak, partly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve might soon cut rates.
Investors are now looking at Japan with renewed interest. The BOJ seems to have moved on from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy.
For years, the BOJ kept rates at zero or below to spur economic activity. But when inflation became a pressing concern, the BOJ decided to try a different approach. In a press conference, Chief Kazuo Ueda said:
“The headline inflation rate has been consistently above 2 percent for an extended period. In view of further upside risks to inflation, we thought now was the right time.”
Ueda also said that while the BOJ is committed to normalizing its policies, they would proceed cautiously. He acknowledged the challenges from yen’s recent depreciation but added that:
“I don’t think the rate increase will have a serious negative effect on the economy because it’s still at low levels.”
More rate hikes could be in the pipeline for Japan, depending on economic data. The central bank announced plans to halve its bond-buying program from the current 6 trillion yen a month by March 2026.
