Best Twitter threads of the day – February 2nd

BTC: Whale activity in exchanges has recently elevated.

?? 1/5

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 2, 2023

Bitcoin whale activity on exchanges has nearly reached a year low following the recent BTC price increase in the last two weeks.

However, it has risen since then, increasing selling pressure on the exchanges. pic.twitter.com/TzX7ES4tOM

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 2, 2023

Prior to yesterday's FOMC meeting, on-chain data revealed some of the highest CDD data in 2023. However, these transactions had not yet occurred in exchanges.

What is CDD?
? https://t.co/uIag2tcmIB pic.twitter.com/iUIiVNH7YT

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 2, 2023

Today, we got very important news.

Markets don't believe Powell, at all.

A thread.

1/

— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 1, 2023

Powell's main job today was to push back against easier financial conditions.

He didn’t nearly push back enough, and so markets are now rallying hard in his face.

2/ pic.twitter.com/AyqBtIngEv

— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 1, 2023

The thing is that this won't stop unless:

– Data comes in very hot (omg the Fed will turn hawkish again) or

– Data comes in recessionary-like (omg this is not a soft landing)

In the meantime, the window for the (misplaced) soft landing narrative is now extended

3/

— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 1, 2023

Picture this.

The first innings of a recession always look like a soft landing, as growth and inflation come down but not to alarming levels yet – exactly like today.

And as markets myopically embrace this soft landing narrative, Powell’s lack of pushback…

4/

— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 1, 2023

…against easier financial conditions adds fuel to the fire.

Taking a deeper look at what Powell actually said, one big message becomes increasingly clear.

Markets don’t believe him.

5/

— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 1, 2023

#1: On Inflation

‘’We need substantial more evidence to be confident about inflation returning to 2%, in particular as we see core non-housing services inflation still running at 4% annualized with no progress there’’

6/ pic.twitter.com/GJM4zlqCK1

— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 1, 2023

The 6-month (annualized) rate of change in core services ex-housing CPI is down to 4% – and despite the clear downward trend, Powell told us he is not happy about it.

The bar for a proper Fed pivot remains high.

But so, why did the market rally like QE was just announced?

7/

— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 1, 2023

The estimated loss of @BonqDAO hack is ~$120M: 98M $BEUR (was priced $1.1 -> $108M) and 113.8M $WALBT (was priced -> $0.1 at $11M). Now the $BEUR price is dropped by >30% and $WALBT dropped by >50%! https://t.co/z8XyBLgRxr

— PeckShield Inc. (@peckshield) February 1, 2023

The BonqDAO exploiter currently holds 89.2M $ALBT, 711 $ETH ($1.2M), & 534k $DAI
They cross-chained 113.8M $ALBT & 534,481 $USDC from Polygon to Ethereum through Multichain.
They already dumped 24.6M $ALBT in batches of ~1M $ALBT each, swapped 534.5k $USDC for 534.5k $DAI pic.twitter.com/bNB546hQ6H

— PeckShield Inc. (@peckshield) February 2, 2023

The @BonqDAO is exploited and its price oracle is manipulated to increase the #WALBT price. Here is the example hack tx: https://t.co/YPxXMr2nkf pic.twitter.com/XrzExHY6m1

— PeckShield Inc. (@peckshield) February 1, 2023

Using the above tx as an example, with the manipulated #WALBT price, the malicious actor is able to mint >100M #BEUR. pic.twitter.com/EOK0UMei85

— PeckShield Inc. (@peckshield) February 1, 2023

In a follow-up tx, the actor further manipulates the #WALBT price and liquidates a bunch of (33) troves: https://t.co/BmZHSrAVTh pic.twitter.com/nqHPfh5Q6o

— PeckShield Inc. (@peckshield) February 1, 2023

The actor then walks away by withdrawing the illicit gains with 113.8M #WALBT and 98M #BEUR (valued >$10M). Some of these tokens are then dumped, resulting in major drop! #WALBT dropped by >50% and #BEUR dropped by 34% pic.twitter.com/HEYxrcaB5Y

— PeckShield Inc. (@peckshield) February 1, 2023