Bitcoin (BTC) bounced from recent lows under $68,000, as the markets breathed a sigh of relief. Short-term demand was strong during the recent dip. The question remains whether the bull market will retain its momentum and reach new highs.
Google Trends can help us understand global interest, distribution, and popular Bitcoin topics. A shift in demand may arrive as BTC stalled again under $70,000, erasing the gains from the most recent breakout above $71,000.
Peak search counts, however, are not an indicator of an upcoming bull market. Rather, they may indicate the blow-off top when media attention is the highest, but a correction is just around the corner. Bull rallies often happen as a breakout after a relatively low but sustained interest in a narrative.
Bitcoin Searches Peak Coincides with Record Prices
Bitcoin searches tend to be a lagging indicator. During the 2024 bull market, the “bitcoin” search term peaked in March. In May, search volumes for the same term are down by 50%, yet at a higher baseline than the bear market.
Retail buying for Bitcoin is still happening, but this time, it is not mass adoption but whales that may be driving the trends. At the end of March, Google search results indicated a market peak. Soon after, the price correction depressed, and the search trends were in a lower baseline.
A subtle difference also reveals that Bitcoin audiences may be diverging. While web and news searches for the term have fallen lower, YouTube searches continue at a higher baseline. The message of Bitcoin is still spreading through spoken media, potentially reaching a new circle of buyers.
The current bull market, however, contained more crypto insiders and less mass hype. Furthermore, a small increase in searches for “crypto” in the past three weeks has stopped the decline.
Toward the end of 2023, BTC was already expanding, but mass searches were much slower. One reason is that Bitcoin was already a known opportunity, and few had to research it from the ground up.
Current interest levels are seen as a “bull market waiting to happen,” coinciding with predictions of new rallies in June and July.
Bitcoin Narrative Alive and Well for Insiders
The Bitcoin narrative has not been abandoned, and branched out in several directions in 2024. The focus is on the Bitcoin ETF narrative, which dominated other smaller trends for crypto insiders.
BTC market prices are off their all-time high, and almost all blockchain activity is more subdued. The ordinals, tokens, and Runes narratives have also slowed down.
Transactions from institutional and medium-range whale wallets with transactions above $1M are re-awakening. Active addresses have slowed to 220K per day from their usual range of above 500K active wallets.
Smaller holders are not moving their coins, but bigger investors are signaling another shift in direction. The previous similar pattern of institutional and whale wallets moving funds happened before the all-time high for BTC in Q1.
Meme Tokens Spark New Retail Buyers
One of the reasons for low retail interest in Bitcoin is that the leading coin is simply not that accessible. With a price near records and the occasional day with $100 in transaction fees, retail buyers are diverting their attention.
Searches for meme tokens show interest in crypto and bullish expectations. The added benefit of meme tokens is the possibility of entering at a much lower price and locking in higher potential returns.
Searches for “Pepe token” and “dogwifhat” took off in early May, preceding the expansion of the two tokens. Searches for “meme coin” grew since the start of 2024, and are again in an upward trend since the beginning of May.
The “meme coin” search term is even more widely represented in YouTube searches, where new retail investors are gaining exposure to the latest launches. Again, the audience for video content is different, suggesting crypto is spreading to new demographics.
Cryptopolitan reporting by Hristina Vasileva
