Bitcoin has woken up on Wednesday as if turbo-charged. The king of the cryptocurrencies is rampaging towards the all-time-high at $69,000. Can it get there? Will it go beyond?
A cycle like no other
Seemingly set on making an all-time-high before the halving in April, $BTC is in an absolute frenzy. Currently at over $59,000, the price is just not stopping. $60,000 seems a foregone conclusion, but then what?
Arguably, the number one tenet in trading is that “the trend is your friend until the end”. It can’t be denied that the $BTC trend is still upward, and despite leverage levels becoming extremely overheated, there is not much in the way of bearishness to mention.
What can’t be repudiated is that this bitcoin cycle is like no other before. It would also appear to be the institutional buying that has completely shocked and changed the market. Such buying pressure at what is normally an early stage of the bull market, is totally unprecedented.
Therefore, it is probably incumbent on everyone to look at this current bull market with new eyes. When up to $500 million is going daily into the Spot Bitcoin ETFs with some regularity, these are amounts that are really moving the dial, and this has never been the case in previous bull markets, except towards the very tops when retail buying would come flooding in.
Last resistance level before ATH
Source: Coingecko/Trading View
In the high time frame chart above it can be seen that $BTC has entered the resistance band from $59,000 to $60,000. It should also be noted that this is really the last resistance of any decent kind before the all-time-high at $69,000.
Where to after ATH?
Source: Coingecko/Trading View
So what is next for bitcoin?
Once the $BTC price gets beyond the ultimate top of $69,000, the price is then in what is called ‘price discovery’. This means that there are no longer any previous price levels to base support and resistance levels on.
That said, we still have the mathematical tool of Fibonacci to call upon. Taking a measurement from the top at $69,000 down to the bottom at $15,500, it can be seen that the 1.618 gives a price of $101,000, which looks quite reasonable.
Many might argue that bitcoin is going to make far superior gains than this, and of course, they may be right. However, we have been seeing diminishing returns for bitcoin over each cycle, and $100,000, besides being a great round number, is a rational level for a top.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
