For the vast majority of those who follow the cryptocurrency market, and particularly bitcoin, the moves of the market are mysterious. However, bitcoin follows the same general moves every time.
Markets take most money from most people
If someone were to say that they had a pretty good idea what bitcoin was going to do next, the majority would scoff at them, saying that the market is designed to take the most money from the most people.
This is in fact a true statement, and is the reason why such a small percentage of traders make consistent money in markets. However, where bitcoin is concerned, the same moves, market cycle after market cycle are taking place.
A macro view of bitcoin
This is the view of Steve Courtney who hosts the Crypto Crew University YouTube channel. Courtney has been studying the macro charts for bitcoin over a number of years, and has been a trader for many years before this.
In his latest video Courtney shows bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles from the very beginning. He takes a macro view of the price movement on the 2-week chart, and highlights each bull market cycle.
Two distinct market phases
Source: Crypto Crew University
From the very first bull market in 2012 he depicts two distinct phases which he calls Phase 1, and Phase 2. Phase 1 comes after bitcoin has bottomed, and builds market structure on top of this bottom. Phase 2, which he says we are in now, builds price structure on top of the support of Phase 1, and then finally when the price leaves Phase 2 it goes into the final bull run stage and the market top.
Source: Crypto Crew University and Trading View
Each of the phases run for a fairly similar amount of time of around 200 days. Courtney says that we are 56 days into Phase 2 and he says that the price might continue to $48,000 before ranging within the Phase 2 rectangle.
Bitcoin always retests the base
The important thing to note here is that he says that bitcoin has ‘always’ gone back to test the base of each phase. Therefore, if he is right, the price should come back down within the following 140 days or so and test the $30,000 level, which would be an amazing place to buy.
No certainties - only probabilities
One more thing to be aware of is that Courtney maintains that there are no certainties in markets, but only probabilities. A case in point is that there is the possibility that bitcoin leaves the Phase 2 box without retesting its bottom, although if this were to happen, the price structure would not be healthy, and a more vertiginous crash could follow.
All the above is only for informational purposes and neither Courtney nor the author claim to have any certain knowledge of how the markets will react.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
