Bitcoin is having a tough time getting back to $65,000. Right now, it’s stuck at $63,488. Let’s break down why Bitcoin’s price is struggling and what on-chain data and technical indicators are telling us.
Indicators support the bears
Bitcoin’s 50-period moving average (MA) is sitting at $63,838, while the 200-period MA is at $64,509. When the price is below these averages, it usually means the market is bearish.
The middle Bollinger Band is at $64,299, with the upper band at $65,390 and the lower band at $63,209. Bitcoin’s price is hugging the lower band, which means it’s oversold. We could see a rebound if buyers step in strong.
The RSI is at 30.34, which is close to the oversold mark of 30. BTC might be due for a bounce back, but it also shows there’s heavy selling pressure. The MACD line is at -93.84, and the signal line is at -222.28.
A negative MACD and a histogram below zero are the strongest bearish signs yet. There is a lot of downward pressure on Bitcoin. Then we have the On-Balance Volume that’s at -13. This means there’s more selling volume than buying volume.
On-chain is also bearish
Looking at BTC’s on-chain data, 87% of holders are making money at the current price, while 3% are breaking even and 10% are losing money. Bitcoin has always had strong support from its long-term investors. They’ve been through it all.
When we look at how long people have been holding Bitcoin, 71% have held it for more than a year, showing long-term confidence. About 25% have held for 1-12 months, and 5% for less than a month, showing some short-term traders.
In the last week, transactions greater than $100,000 are worth $92.22 billion, thanks to spot ETFs raking in a hell of an inflow all through the week. Positive netflows into exchanges is $273.38 million over the last week.
This means more Bitcoin is being moved to exchanges, likely for selling or trading, supporting the short-term bearish pressure. Most on-chain signals are bullish. The overall sentiment is leaning towards upward price movement.
Bitcoin might test support levels around $63,000. If it holds there and the RSI moves up, we could see a rebound towards $65,000. But if selling continues and the price drops below $63,000, the next major support level is around $60,000.
