As the deadline looms for the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the sentiments among analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart assigning a 90% chance of approval by January 10. Despite the prevailing optimism, the analysts are hesitant to push the odds beyond 90%, expressing concerns about the SEC potentially seeking “more time” rather than issuing a flat-out rejection.
Bloomberg analyst explains spot Bitcoin ETFs verdict
The Bloomberg analyst, in particular, emphasizes that the absence of a definitive approval percentage beyond 90% is rooted in the perceived need for additional time by the SEC. The confidence in avoiding a full-out denial is underscored by the substantial efforts invested by both the regulatory body and Bitcoin ETF issuers. The Bloomberg analyst goes as far as describing an outright rejection at this stage as the potential “rug pull of the decade,” emphasizing the magnitude of the consequences such a move would entail. The commitment demonstrated by all parties involved, even during the holiday season, contributes to the Bloomberg analysts’ confidence in a positive outcome.
Vetle Lunde from K33 Research echoes this sentiment, assigning a mere 5% chance of an outright ETF rejection in a recent market report. The consensus among analysts suggests that the likelihood of approval far outweighs the probability of a denial. Despite the prevailing optimism, there remains a cloud of uncertainty, especially concerning the aftermath of a hypothetical outright denial. Balchunas speculates that fund issuers may emulate crypto asset manager Grayscale and initiate legal actions against the SEC.
The ripple effect of a rejection
This scenario, if it were to unfold, could lead to a swift response rather than a customary cooling-off period. The analysts argue that stakeholders have invested too much time and resources to easily abandon the pursuit of a Bitcoin ETF. Public sentiment, as reflected in comments submitted to the SEC, showcases a divergence of opinions. Recent submissions, as of January 2, explicitly advocate for the outright rejection of the ETFs. One noteworthy comment raises concerns about Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, suggesting that it might appeal to authoritarian regimes seeking to evade sanctions and exert greater control over their citizens.
As the industry awaits the SEC’s decision, the market observes closely for potential shifts in regulatory dynamics. The upcoming weeks are poised to reveal whether the SEC will greenlight the Bitcoin ETF, potentially ushering in new opportunities for crypto investment within traditional financial structures. Alternatively, the SEC might opt for further deliberation, extending the suspense for industry participants. In the ever-evolving realm of cryptocurrency, regulatory developments hold a pivotal role.
The decision on the Bitcoin ETF serves as a litmus test, indicating the level of acceptance cryptocurrencies may garner within mainstream financial systems. The anticipation within the crypto community reflects the significance of this decision, with stakeholders hoping for a milestone approval while preparing for potential legal battles if faced with a denial. As the clock ticks down to the SEC’s deadline, the crypto community remains engaged, submitting varied perspectives to the regulatory body. Whether the ETF secures approval, encounters a delay, or faces outright rejection, the ramifications for the crypto market and its participants are substantial.
