All dynasties eventually come to an end, whether they were the Pharaohs of Egypt, the Romans of the ancient world, or the Boston Celtics of the 1960s and early 80s. In business, it ends in one of two ways: the business adapts and thrives or gets left behind. Amazon is a prime example of a company that adapted and expanded from its humble beginnings as an online bookstore. Conversely, companies like Borders and Blockbuster failed to keep up with change and went out of business altogether. How about the potential threat by ChatGPT?
Alphabet’s Google Search has enjoyed a tremendous run as the world’s preferred search engine, but change is coming. This prime news report explores the potential threat posed by ChatGPT, a Microsoft-backed generative chatbot, and how Alphabet is adapting to the evolving landscape of search.
The ChatGPT threat
The release of ChatGPT, a generative chatbot, marked a significant shift in discussions on Wall Street and among retail investors. Interest shifted from traditional topics like interest rates and recession to artificial intelligence (AI) and new opportunities in tech stocks. It also raised questions about whether Alphabet would maintain its dominance in the search market. Google Search has become so ingrained in society that terms like “Googled,” “Googles,” “Googling,” and “Googleable” are now officially recognized words in the Merriam-Webster dictionary.
When it comes to conducting online searches, a staggering 85% of users still choose Google. Many competitors have attempted to challenge Google’s supremacy over the years, but few have made a significant dent in its dominance. ChatGPT, however, represents a different kind of threat. It is not merely another search engine but a conversational bot capable of answering queries and generating original content. This unique feature sets it apart from previous challengers.
How lucrative is Google Search for Alphabet?
To grasp the scope of the potential threat posed by ChatGPT, investors need to understand just how crucial Google Search is to Alphabet’s revenue. While Alphabet has multiple revenue streams, including YouTube and Google Cloud, Google Search remains its primary source of income. In 2022, Google Search generated a staggering $162.5 billion in sales, accounting for 57% of the company’s total revenue.
Fast forward to 2023, and Google Search continues to be a financial powerhouse, contributing $83 billion to Alphabet’s total revenue of $144 billion, maintaining its 57% share. It’s evident that any significant loss in market share for Google Search would have devastating consequences for Alphabet’s financial success.
Alphabet’s response to ChatGPT
The billion-dollar question on everyone’s mind is whether ChatGPT, or a similar AI-powered technology, will eventually render Google Search obsolete. The answer is complex, as Alphabet has not remained idle in the face of this challenge. Over the past several years, the company has invested billions in developing its own AI solutions. The release of ChatGPT served as a catalyst, prompting Alphabet to roll out its AI initiatives.
One such initiative is Bard, Alphabet’s generative chatbot that allows users to engage in conversation. To ensure that the information provided by these chatbots remains up-to-date, they draw from publicly available internet sources, including Google Search results. Additionally, Alphabet introduced Google Lens, which integrates with Google Search and enables users to conduct searches using images. This innovation is particularly valuable for tasks such as language translation and searching for products when users don’t know their names. AI-driven image recognition has made such searches possible.
While the future of search is undoubtedly evolving, Google Search’s vast database and wealth of information give Alphabet a substantial advantage over potential competitors. This advantage could prove instrumental in leading the change rather than being left behind by it.
The challenge of monetization and market share
One key factor in determining the fate of Google Search is whether other companies possess the industry expertise to monetize their AI solutions effectively and capture market share from Google. When ChatGPT initially launched, it gained massive popularity, but its traffic has been consistently decreasing since then. The technology is not yet ready for prime time, as the information it provides isn’t updated in real-time (based on data from 2021).
Microsoft, a significant player in the tech industry, made a substantial investment to integrate ChatGPT technology into Bing. However, it faces the daunting task of luring customers deeply entrenched in Google’s ecosystem and then finding ways to monetize them. Google’s decade-long success has not occurred by chance, and toppling it will prove challenging, even for a tech giant like Microsoft.
When ChatGPT burst onto the scene, many were quick to predict the demise of Google Search. However, such predictions appear premature. The way we search is undeniably changing, and it presents both a risk and an opportunity for Alphabet. While ChatGPT and similar technologies represent a new era in search, Google’s vast resources, established user base, and commitment to innovation position it to adapt and thrive for many more years.
In the ever-evolving landscape of technology and search, Alphabet’s ability to embrace change and harness the potential of AI will determine whether it can continue its reign as the dominant force in the search engine industry. The future may hold surprises, but Alphabet’s long-standing track record of innovation suggests that it is far from being overtaken by the ChatGPT revolution.
