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China’s Heavy Rains Pose Threat to Global Rice Market
The global rice market is currently on the brink of further strain as China, the world’s largest rice producer, grapples with heavy rain and flood risks in its grain-producing north-eastern region. The resulting reduction in yields is expected to exert upward pressure on global rice prices, according to a recent report by Fitch Ratings.
China’s role in the global rice market cannot be understated. As the leading rice producer, the country not only feeds its own vast population but also contributes significantly to the international rice trade. The Fitch report highlighted that China’s three key provinces, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia, have been grappling with heavy rainfall, prompting flood alerts and raising concerns about the impact on grain production.
These provinces collectively accounted for a significant portion of China’s grain output in 2021, with Heilongjiang being the largest rice-producing province, contributing 13.7% to the country’s rice production in the same year.
The heavy rainfall, triggered by the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri and worsened by the approach of Typhoon Khanun, has left many key grain production areas waterlogged. As a result, crop yields for the current year are expected to decrease, although the extent of the damage remains uncertain.
These adverse conditions are predicted to drive up China’s domestic grain prices, potentially prompting higher imports during the latter half of 2023 to offset the potential yield loss. While the situation in China raises concerns about potential disruptions to the global rice market, the effects on corn prices are expected to remain contained due to ample global supply.
Global Rice Prices Reach 12-Year High
Meanwhile, the global rice market is experiencing a significant upheaval as prices soar to their highest levels in nearly 12 years, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) All Rice Price Index.
The recent ban on non-basmati white rice exports by India and the United Arab Emirates has sent shockwaves through the market. With India accounting for over 40% of the world’s rice trade, this move has had a substantial impact on the availability of rice in international markets.
In addition, Thailand, another significant rice producer, has taken measures to address water scarcity. Low rainfall has prompted the Thai government to urge farmers to plant less rice in order to conserve water resources.
The consequences of these developments have led to a surge in rice prices, with the FAO’s All Rice Price Index reaching levels of 129.7 as of July 2023. Market observers are now anticipating a continuation of higher rice prices as the impacts of these supply disruptions reverberate across the industry.
As China navigates the challenges posed by heavy rains and floods, the global community is reminded of the importance of building resilient agricultural technological systems and collaborative efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate-related events on food production and distribution.
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