COIN could tumble to $21 in the next few months amid Coinbase's insider trading allegations and weak technicals.
Coinbase (COIN) stock bounced by 4.35% to $57 on July 27 after shedding roughly 20% over the past week. But more downside is likely despite the release of Coinbase's first installment of the Bored Ape Yacht Club-featured movie called The Degen Trilogy.
THE DEGEN TRILOGY: PART ONE
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Bad news stalls COIN's rally
Overall, COIN is down roughly 83% since its Nasdaq debut in April 2021 with more losses possible due to weak fundamentals and bearish technicals.
To recap, COIN reached $79 on July 20, five days after breaking out of its "ascending triangle" pattern. As a rule, COIN's profit target was supposed to be around $120, up over 130% from July 27's price.
Nonetheless, the stock's bullish reversal stopped midway after reaching $79, mired by back-to-back negative pieces of news.
Initially, COIN's correction began in the wake of a broader retreat in the crypto market, led by Bitcoin (BTC). Then, the downside move picked up momentum after U.S. authorities arrested a former Coinbase manager on "insider trading" allegations.
But the biggest selloff during this correction came on July 26 after Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating Coinbase for listing unregistered securities.
In response, Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management sold over 1.4 million out of nearly 9 million Coinbase shares.
COIN dropped by over 21% to close July 26 at $52.93 while testing the ascending triangle's upper trendline as support. In the process, COIN wiped out its entire bullish reversal breakout move.
Bearish continuation setup returns
Ascending triangles are typically continuation patterns. Therefore, COIN risks facing more losses in the coming days if it moves back inside its ascending triangle range.
Related: IMF global outlook suggests dark clouds ahead for crypto
On the daily chart, a drop below the triangle's upper trendline could have COIN test the lower trendline near $45 for a breakdown.
Ideally, such a bearish move will push the stock toward the level at length equal to the maximum distance between the triangle's upper and lower trendline.
In other words, COIN stock price could decline toward $21 by September, almost 60% lower than July 27's price.
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