Q4 is going to be wild for crypto. The election’s going to be over, Donald Trump might be back in charge, and then the real action will begin.
November 8th is the date to watch. Another 50 basis point rate cut is almost guaranteed. That’s going to open the floodgates for intense fiat liquidity flowing into crypto.
On top of that, China is pumping a ridiculous amount of money into its economy. Combine that with Japan’s economic plans, and we’ve got a massive liquidity injection coming.
FTX, ETFs, and smash buys
FTX is back in play, and their spigots are open again. Creditors are getting paid, so that’s also going to put a lot of capital back into the market.
We’re going to see money flood back in as retail investors scramble to buy in. FOMO is real. A lot of analysts are predicting that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 by the end of the year, maybe even more.
Retail interest is already ramping up. Downloads of crypto trading apps are ticking up. The whales are holding their positions, but retail is driving the market now.
Meanwhile, ETFs are the new playground. Advisors and wirehouses are all getting on board, spreading that crypto exposure like wildfire. These products are a big reason why Bitcoin could hit $120,000 before we even hit 2025.
Let’s not forget about the ongoing MSTR (MicroStrategy) converts and Bitcoin smash buys. Michael Saylor is buying up Bitcoin like crazy, which is helping to push the market higher.
Uptober for Bitcoin and Ethereum
October is famously known in crypto circles as “Uptober” for a reason. Historically, Bitcoin sees a massive rise in this month, and this year looks no different.
Repeating last year’s performance, Bitcoin could surge above $70,000, potentially hitting new all-time highs. Ethereum is also set for a big move, with predictions it could break $3,000 again.
Bitcoin’s velocity, which tracks how frequently Bitcoin changes hands, remains low. But dormancy, which shows how much Bitcoin moves after being held for a long time, has spiked this year.
This tells us that long-term holders are finally moving their coins, though they’re doing it at a much slower rate than before.
And that’s a good sign for the bulls. It means liquidity is still low, but prices are rising, which creates the absolute perfect storm for Bitcoin to surge past the ATH.
Another thing to watch out for is the flattening buying activity in the spot market. Since early September, spot investors have been accumulating Bitcoin heavily.
But that buying has started to slow down as we get into Q4.
Meanwhile, futures have hit $35.3 billion in open interest, which usually signals a local market peak. If the market overheats, we could see a short-term pullback before the next rally.
But that’s just a bump in the road for what looks like an epic Q4.
