As America gears up for the next Presidential election, which is still more than a year away, anticipation and apprehension are brewing in the political corridors of Europe.
Speculation about a possible shift in U.S. leadership has triggered a sense of urgency among European Union officials. The key objective? To expedite as many shared policy initiatives as possible during President Joe Biden’s remaining tenure.
Brussels, the heart of Europe, is quietly preparing for what might come after the upcoming U.S. Presidential election.
The possibility of a leadership transition at the White House is propelling EU officials to get as much done as they can under the current administration, an EU official told CNBC, requesting anonymity given the sensitive nature of the situation.
Biden’s influence on Europe-U.S. relations
The election of President Biden in late 2020 was hailed in Europe after a tense four years of transatlantic relations under the Trump administration.
The Biden administration’s policy objectives and approach resonated more with Brussels, leading to improved cooperation on various fronts such as the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, and more recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, praised the unprecedented unity between Europe and the United States against Russia’s unjustified aggression towards Ukraine. “Putin thought he would divide us, and yet we are more united than ever,” she asserted in March alongside President Biden.
Apprehensions for a potential leadership shift
However, the strong alliance and common work practices that have formed could come to a halt if a new leader occupies the White House.
Kevin Klowden, Chief Global Strategist at Milken Institute, expressed apprehension about a difficult relationship if a Republican candidate were to take over the presidency. He noted that the Europeans are concerned that the U.S. may withdraw its military and financial support for Ukraine under a different administration.
This sentiment is also reflected in former President Trump’s recent statements where he remained non-committal about backing Ukraine if he were to regain the presidency.
Likewise, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is anticipated to announce his presidential campaign later this month, voiced his belief that the U.S. shouldn’t get further embroiled in the Ukraine conflict.
The shift towards strategic autonomy
Despite the apprehensions, there is a growing realization in the region about the need for strategic autonomy, an approach aimed at reducing dependency on both China and the U.S.
A European diplomat, requesting anonymity, stated, “The EU is developing its own path towards strategic autonomy, which doesn’t mean we are turning our back on our allies.”
This objective of self-reliance will continue regardless of who is in the White House, the diplomat confirmed, underscoring that the transatlantic partnership is essential for Europe.
The diplomat also hinted that future relations might have a different appearance as Europe continues to make strides toward strategic autonomy. While Europe remains hopeful of Biden’s re-election, officials are pragmatically preparing for a potential change in U.S. leadership.
There is a shared understanding that irrespective of the strong bond between Europe and the current U.S. administration, every American president will prioritize U.S. interests, which may not always align with the former’s aspirations.
As such, Europe’s focus on strategic autonomy has never been more relevant or pressing.
