Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal is updating his outlook on how the current crypto market cycle could play out.
In a new interview with Pomp Investments founder Anthony Pompliano, Pal says that there is a chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will repeat a “bubble” price pattern similar to the 2011-2013 cycle and soar as high as $500,000.
The Real Vision CEO gives such a scenario about a 20% chance of playing out but also mentions two other possibilities.
“So how I’m thinking about it, I’m giving 60% probability this is a relatively normal cycle, in which case [Bitcoin] would get to $150,000, let’s say. I’m giving it a 20% chance that it’s actually a front-loaded cycle because of the ETF (spot BTC exchange-traded funds) and other stuff that maybe gets to that $150,000 faster and then fades, which will be kind of pain for a lot of people who expect it to go into 2025.
And then the other 20% chance I think is that this ends up being a bubble cycle. And so it looks more like 2011, 2012, 2013 than it does the previous one. If you remember that cycle, it had an interim top correction, everyone thought it was over, and then it just exploded again. I think there’s a decent chance of that, but we need to see the contextualization of how the ETF flows’ impact, what’s happening with monetary policy, what’s going on in the economy, how the [US presidential] election is going to play into this. So that’s how I’m thinking of it.
That upside crazy bubble target… we got price targets of half a million plus, so even if I discount me for being a moron by 50%, you still get $250,000.”
Bitcoin is trading for $43,049 at time of writing, up nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.
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