Predictions markets had an edge on the polls in the 2024 US election, but are they actually helping pundits predict the future?
The decentralized betting market platform Polymarket left political commentators around the world stunned by its accuracy in sourcing information about the US presidential election race between President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Now several commentators are backing the idea that prediction markets and the concept of “information finance” could be the next leap forward in humanity’s ability to make more efficient and educated guesses about the outcome of global events.
In a Nov. 9 blog post, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin outlined the concept of information finance, or “Info Fi” for short, betting on the fact that betting markets are actually much more than just speculation engines.
