Brace yourself, the United States! The Federal Reserve is going full steam ahead in its war against inflation, as it pushes the benchmark interest rates to a high unseen in over two decades.
The committee nudged the federal funds rate to a 5.25-5.5 per cent target range on Wednesday. And believe me, they’re not stopping there. The Federal Reserve is back on its most uncompromising monetary tightening spree in decades.
Federal Reserve tightens the belt
Yes, you heard it right. The last time the committee convened in June, they decided to hold the rates steady. Their fearless leader, Fed chair Jay Powell, promised a slower tempo of rate rises.
But don’t be fooled. With a unanimous decision, the board has put the pedal to the metal again, propelling the interest rates to a peak unseen since the turn of the century.
You might wonder why this harsh approach? Well, their statement cited “elevated” inflation, “robust” job gains, and “moderate pace” of economic expansion.
They’re on the watch for inflation risks and vow to keep a finger on the pulse of the monetary policy landscape. Their decision – whether to ramp up the rates further in September – remains a mystery even after Powell’s cryptic comments at the press conference.
In the financial world, things have taken an interesting turn. The S&P 500 index skyrocketed to an all-time high since April 2022, following Powell’s comments about the September meeting.
And even as the two-year Treasury yield dipped, the broader implications are crystal clear. The Federal Reserve isn’t pulling any punches in its efforts to wrestle inflation to the ground.
Powell warned of potential inflation with stronger growth and has yet to rule out further rate increases. But don’t let this scare you.
Powell also raised hopes of a “soft landing,” as Fed economists have reversed their recession call. There’s talk of a noticeable slowdown, but apparently, the recession is off the table.
The big picture
It’s hard to ignore that the Federal Reserve has pushed its benchmark rate from near zero in March 2022 to over 5 per cent today. We’re on the fast track to achieve borrowing costs the Federal Reserve deems “sufficiently restrictive” to squash inflation down to a long-standing 2 per cent target.
While Powell has painted a rosy picture of approaching the destination, they’ve refused to shut the door on further rate hikes. That’s the Federal Reserve for you, always keeping us guessing.
What we do know is that the U.S. economy has shown resilience, exceeding expectations of a sharper slowdown. The labour market is cooling, but still going strong, and consumer spending remains buoyant.
Despite these developments, many market participants and economists are skeptical. They believe the Federal Reserve has done enough, as signs of moderating inflation have started to emerge.
Bob Michele from JPMorgan Asset Management believes the Fed will halt rate increases, especially by the time of the September meeting.
Christopher Waller, a governor and hawkish member of the FOMC, has stirred the pot, hinting at the possibility of another rate hike at the September gathering.
However, most economists believe that the Fed has a steep climb to justify further tightening in September. If anything, they’re likely to wait until November before considering another rate rise.
So there you have it. The Federal Reserve, in all its might, has sent a shockwave through the economic landscape, pushing U.S. interest rates to a 22-year high. But hold on to your hats, folks. This ride isn’t over yet.
