In a sobering revelation, CCS Insight’s annual predictions for the technology industry in 2024 foresee a harsh reality check for the once-buzzy generative artificial intelligence space. Analysts from the firm suggest that the fervor surrounding generative AI is set to face a substantial slowdown in 2024, highlighting escalating costs, regulatory pressures, and the intricate challenges involved.
Ben Wood, Chief Analyst at CCS Insight, emphasized that while industry giants like Google, Amazon, Qualcomm, and Meta champion AI’s transformative potential, the hype surrounding generative AI in 2023 has surpassed realistic expectations.
Generative AI models, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google Bard, have been in the limelight for their ability to produce human-like responses to text-based prompts. But, the complexity of these models demands colossal computing power, often in the form of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs). The increasing costs associated with deploying and sustaining generative AI pose a significant barrier for many organizations and developers, making it economically unviable for widespread adoption.
Generative AI hype downturn
The allure of generative AI has captivated technology enthusiasts, venture capitalists, and boardrooms alike. This technology, showcased by models like ChatGPT, has demonstrated the potential to generate content ranging from song lyrics to college essays. But, the overhyped expectations surrounding generative AI have led analysts to predict a sobering reality in 2024. The immense costs involved in deploying and maintaining these models, particularly the need for high-powered chips, are making it prohibitive for many organizations. This economic hurdle may dampen the widespread adoption of generative AI, bringing it down from its pedestal of exaggerated expectations.
CCS Insight’s predictions extend beyond the financial realm, delving into the regulatory challenges faced by the European Union in the field of AI. Despite being a pioneer in technology legislation, the EU’s attempts to regulate AI are expected to encounter obstacles. The analysts anticipate that the initial AI regulation, set to be introduced by the EU, will undergo multiple revisions due to the rapid pace of AI advancements. The finalization of legislation is expected only in late 2024, leaving the industry to grapple with the need for self-regulation in the interim.
EU’s regulatory challenges and AI’s impact on content and crime
While generative AI’s hype takes a backseat, the regulatory landscape in the European Union faces its own challenges. Despite being at the forefront of technology legislation, the EU’s attempts to regulate AI are expected to encounter hurdles. The initial regulations, though the first of their kind, are predicted to undergo multiple revisions in response to the swift evolution of AI technology. With the legislation not finalized until late 2024, the industry is left to navigate the complex terrain of self-regulation. This uncertainty adds a layer of complexity to the already intricate landscape of generative AI, further contributing to the anticipated slowdown in its adoption.
Beyond the economic and regulatory facets, CCS Insight’s predictions delve into the realm of AI-generated content and its potential ramifications. The surge in AI-generated news stories, often riddled with factual errors and misinformation, has prompted concerns about the need for user awareness. CCS Insight forecasts that a major search engine will soon introduce content warnings for AI-generated material, akin to the information labels added to combat misinformation related to Covid-19. This proactive step aims to alert users that the content they are viewing is AI-generated, mitigating potential misinformation pitfalls.
CCS Insight ventures into the realm of AI-based crime, predicting a shift in law enforcement activities. The company anticipates that arrests for AI-based identity fraud will commence in 2024, marking a significant milestone in the intersection of AI and criminal activities. The ease with which image generation and voice synthesis models can be customized for impersonation poses risks in personal and professional spheres, potentially leading to damage in relationships and various forms of fraud in banking, insurance, and benefits.
The anticipated ‘cold shower’ for generative AI in 2024, as predicted by CCS Insight, reflects a sobering reality check for a technology that has ridden the waves of immense hype. The challenges of cost, regulation, and ethical considerations are poised to reshape the narrative around generative AI, bringing it down to a more pragmatic and sustainable level in the ever-evolving landscape of artificial intelligence.
