Trading actual Bitcoin (BTC) coins from old wallets is still in the game. This time, the German government keeps sending funds to exchanges, while the market tries to absorb the selling. Despite the pressure, BTC still keeps close to the $61,000 range.
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Two big whales are making waves for BTC, both on the selling and buying side. Some of the most notable transfers come from the known wallet of the German government, liquidating BTC seized years ago from websites deemed illegal. The wallet is shedding transactions of 345 BTC, sent to spot exchanges like Kraken. The selling diminished the German government’s wallet to $2.9B, down from $3.5B at the beginning of June.
The German Government selling #Bitcoin 👇 pic.twitter.com/C7MXkaB237
— Satoshi Babe (@satoshi_babe) June 27, 2024
In the past day, the US government also made a deposit to Coinbase Prime for 3.94K BTC, worth around $241M. The large-scale deposit follows a series of test deposits for 0.5 BTC in the past couple of weeks.
There have been expectations that these wallets intended to sell at some point, though not warning of the scale and timing of the deals. The government sales arrive at a time when Mt. Gox is also preparing to liquidate BTC, with a deadline of October 2024 to finish compensating its creditors.
The market is absorbing the selling pressure
The current government selling seems to be taken in stride by the markets. Whales have taken profits in the past, only to have their holdings absorbed by buyers. This time, the market has to eat another “bear whale”, and the selling is relatively more cautious.
The potential amount of idle BTC to be absorbed is just around half the demand for coins when building the nine major ETF.
Ok, so
The US government has 213,546 BTC ($12.9 billion)
The German government has 45,609 BTC ($2.8 billion)
Mt. Gox has 142,000 BTC ($9 billion)
In total ~401,155 BTC
For context, all Bitcoin ETFs managed to accumulate over 871,000 BTC in just ~6 months
Meh, we good pic.twitter.com/KufwP39LJ9
— ELI5 of TLDR (@explain_briefly) June 26, 2024
Additionally, there are only 450 new BTC mined each day. Both exchange reserves and miner reserves have also dwindled. However, miners are the most serious class of holders that are sitting on 1.8M mined coins even after selling.
For some analysts, the current BTC sales are in preparation of an Ethereum (ETH) rally. ETH has lagged the market so far, but there are expectations for a dramatic rise once the first ETF by VanEck starts trading in the coming week.
Also Read: Crypto markets brace for impact as Bitcoin and ETH options worth $10B near-expiry
The potential for more selling from the mix of government and Mt.Gox wallet is also inviting caution in the “buy the dip” trend. For retail buyers, there are expectations of another dip in July, in case selling accelerates. BTC is still in the “Buy” zone based on the Rainbow chart, with some caution on possibly dipping to a lower range for accumulation.
Skeptics also see the latest whale moves as a way to shake out “weak hands”. Currently, Binance, Coinbase, Kraken and Gate.IO can absorb about $60M BTC sales for a 2% price slide.
Whale buying is a signal of trend shift
In the short term, selling may cause other holders to panic and shed their coins. Some may sell in expectation of buying lower.
Some types of whale buying are also seen as a signal of a trend shift. In the past week, an account known as the Bitfinex whale switched to accumulation.
More buying is also coming from a wallet known as “Mr.100”, one of the top BTC holders. The wallet absorbed around 104 BTC, still comparatively low given the current selling. Yet the move was seen as a positive for “buying the dip”.
Mr. 100 once again amasses nearly 104 BTC
The whale address known as "Mr. 100" (starting with 1Ay8vM) once again purchased almost 104 BTC on June 26, adding up to a total holding of over 66,916.63 BTC, according to data from BitInfoCharts. This comes after the whale amassed more…
— CoinNess Global (@CoinnessGL) June 26, 2024
Mr.100 activated on June 25, making the first wallet inflows since May 19. Speculations about the wallet’s identity include either a wealthy individual, a government, or an unidentified exchange wallet. The address now holds nearly 67K coins, after adding around 300 BTC in the past two days.
Another cluster of wallets bought up 190K BTC in the past month. So far, the wallets remain unidentified and idle, holding an identical amount of coins. The wallets recently entered the top 20 of the richest addresses and are not connected to an exchange or another entity.
BTC traded at $60,737.81, heading for the month’s close. Volumes remain near their baseline at $21B in 24 hours. For now, the market has not seen new inflows of USDT stablecoins, and there is in fact an outflow of 200M USDT in the past week.
Cryptopolitan reporting by Hristina Vasileva
