Hashdex, a prominent player among the 13 asset managers competing for the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) spot in the United States, has set its sights on the second quarter of 2024 for the potential launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the country. In addition to this, the company anticipates the subsequent introduction of a spot Ethereum ETF.
Hashdex optimistic about Bitcoin ETF approval
The optimism surrounding the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. has undergone a significant shift in discourse throughout 2023. What was once a question of “if” has now evolved into a matter of “when,” according to Hashdex’s U.S. and Europe head of product, Dramane Meite. Meite shared these insights in a 2024 outlook report published on December 4, shedding light on the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investments.
While the exact timing for the introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. remains uncertain, Hashdex foresees that U.S. investors will gain access to this investment vehicle by the second quarter of 2024. Following this development, the company expects a spot Ether ETF to follow suit. Hashdex is among the 13 asset managers actively pursuing approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF, with its application currently under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Additionally, the firm has proposed a hybrid Ether ETF involving both futures and spot contracts, awaiting regulatory evaluation. Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have assigned a 90% probability for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs leading up to January 10, 2024. However, Seyffart cautions that this estimation specifically pertains to the 19b-4 applications. The approval of a separate Form S-1 is also a crucial step for the actual launch of the ETF.
Navigating regulatory hurdles and market potential
James Seyffart emphasized in November that there could be a considerable time gap between regulatory approval and the practical initiation of the ETF, potentially spanning weeks or even months. Form S-1 serves as the mechanism through which companies notify the SEC of proposed rule changes, requiring validation from the agency’s Division of Corporation Finance. Meite, in Hashdex’s outlook report, envisions that the introduction of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs will entice traditional asset managers with established brands to step into the cryptocurrency space.
This move, he believes, will mark the first time these legacy players offer cryptocurrency products to their customers. Meite speculates that the introduction of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs could unlock a market valued at $50 trillion, surpassing the combined sizes of Europe, Canada, and Brazil—the only three global markets currently hosting spot crypto exchange-traded products. He anticipates that the primary focus of interest in single-asset ETFs will revolve around Bitcoin and Ether, given their widespread recognition and the minimal differentiation among existing offerings.
Hashdex’s outlook report reflects growing confidence in the approval and subsequent launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in the U.S. market. The potential market impact is significant, with the expectation that traditional asset managers will embrace cryptocurrency offerings. However, the timeline for regulatory approval and the subsequent availability of these ETFs to investors remains subject to ongoing processes, with a potential time gap between approval and practical launch.
