As the next Bitcoin halving nears, industry experts are attentively analyzing the long-term implications for price and hash rate. The Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for mid-April 2024, is anticipated to impact the crypto market substantially. This event is a vital part of the Bitcoin protocol and helps control the Bitcoin supply in circulation.
What is bitcoin halving?
A bitcoin halving (sometimes called ‘halvening’) is an event in which the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half, resulting in miners receiving 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions. Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to occur approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks, until the maximal supply of 21 million bitcoins have been generated.
Bitcoin halving is significant for traders because they diminish the number of new bitcoins generated by the network. This restricts the availability of new coins, so prices may increase if demand remains robust.
The next Bitcoin halving is projected to take place in April 2024, when the number of blocks reaches 740,000. It will result in a decrease in the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins. As the time required to generate new blocks varies, the precise date of the halving is not yet known. On average, one block is generated every ten minutes.
At this time, the next Bitcoin halving is 362 days and 17 hours away. Bitcoin will be halved every 210,000 blocks until all 21 million coins are mined around 2140.
Users will no longer receive new bitcoins for validating blocks when the maximal supply of 21 million bitcoins is mined. As an incentive to verify transactions, they will continue to receive transaction fees contributed by those making payments.
Bitcoin halving price effect
Bitcoin underwent its last halving on 11 May 2020, when mining rewards decreased by 50%, from 12.5 new bitcoin per block to 6.25 bitcoin. The coin’s price rose from $6877.62 on April 11 (one month prior to the halving) to $8821 at the time of the event as a result of the restricting supply. The price continued to rise over the course of the following year, reaching $49504 on 11 May 2021 despite significant volatility.
A similar pattern emerged around the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, where the strongest period of upside occurred after the halving. Despite a substantial drop in value 12 to 17 months later, the price remained significantly higher than before the halving.
The Bitcoin halving is arguably one of the most significant occurrences in the cryptocurrency market. Due to the effect it has on Bitcoin’s price, it garners considerable attention.
However, it is important to note that even as the BTC price is anticipated to accelerate, so too is the general crypto market. This is because Bitcoin currently controls approximately 60% of the crypto market. When Bitcoin moves, the rest of the crypto market typically follows.
Many analysts anticipate that the price will rise following the event as the supply of new coins is limited, similar to the previous three halvings.
Any price increase, however, will be determined by how demand for bitcoins evolves over the length of the halving. The market has grown dramatically since the last halving in 2020. Many more well-established cryptocurrencies are competing for users, so demand is far from likely to increase – or even remain flat.
Put this to mind
However, it is important to note that there are other factors that can impact the price of Bitcoin. These include government regulations, changes in investor sentiment, and the adoption of Bitcoin by mainstream institutions. It is also worth noting that the impact of the 2024 Bitcoin halving may not be immediate, and it may take several months or even years for the full impact to be felt.
Another potential impact of the 2024 Bitcoin halving is on the Bitcoin mining industry. Mining Bitcoin is a process that requires significant computing power and energy consumption. As the block reward reduces, it may become less profitable for miners to continue mining Bitcoin. This could lead to a reduction in the number of Bitcoin miners, which could impact the security of the Bitcoin network.
However, it is also possible that the reduction in block rewards could lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin, which could offset the reduced profitability of mining. Additionally, some miners may switch to other cryptocurrencies or shift their focus to other areas of the blockchain industry. Ultimately, only time will tell what the full impact of the 2024 Bitcoin halving will be.
