India’s steadfast relationship with Russia is under pressure as Moscow’s growing ties with China raise national security concerns for New Delhi.
While both India and Russia seek to deepen their economic ties, the changing geopolitical landscape is leading to increased scrutiny of their long-standing partnership.
India’s concerns over Russia-China relations
Despite India’s external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, recently stating the country is ready to restart free trade negotiations with Russia, India’s leaders are carefully monitoring Moscow’s increasing closeness to Beijing.
Harsh V. Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation, said India is worried about Russia’s vulnerable position and its growing reliance on China for economic and strategic reasons.
New Delhi aims to avoid a potential Russia-China alliance as it would fundamentally alter India’s foreign policy and strategic calculations.
While there are national interest reasons for India’s continued economic engagement with Russia, Moscow’s tighter embrace of China raises concerns for India’s national security needs.
Impact on India’s defense cooperation
India’s long-standing ties with Moscow date back to the Cold War, with the country heavily dependent on Russia for military equipment. This defense cooperation is crucial given India’s tensions with an increasingly assertive China along the Himalayan border.
The partnership between Russia and India could potentially experience some tension due to Russia’s inability to provide crucial defense materials amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
This has resulted in a delay in the delivery of the much-needed S-400 anti-missile systems to India, which has consequently sparked concerns about Russia’s reliability as a strategic partner.
In the past, India has relied heavily on Moscow’s support in curbing China’s aggression, but the current situation raises doubts about Russia’s ability to continue playing the same role it once did.
India’s need to embrace the West
Given the close relationship between China and Russia, experts are of the opinion that India needs to accelerate its embrace of the West.
The Western nations recognize India’s challenges in the Indo-Pacific region and the need for Moscow’s support in managing Beijing in the short to medium term.
This sensitivity is driving the Western outreach to India despite differences over Ukraine, and national security concerns are drawing India closer to the United States.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will join US President Joe Biden and his counterparts from Australia and Japan at the third Quad Leaders summit in Sydney on May 24.
The Quad is an informal security alignment of the four major democracies formed in response to China’s rising strength in the Indo-Pacific.
The ability of Russia to navigate the evolving dynamics between India and China will be subject to a critical examination.
In the past, the three countries shared a common goal of promoting a multipolar world where American unipolarity was the target. However, on May 3rd, India’s primary target is China’s attempt to establish hegemony in the Indo-Pacific.
Russia’s ability to manage its relationships with both India and China will be under the scanner, as New Delhi closely monitors the evolving geopolitical landscape.
