India’s rupee has fallen to its lowest point ever, trading at 84.6850 per dollar after a government report revealed the slowest economic growth in two years.
But the rupee isn’t just slipping because of domestic issues. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has fired off threats at India and its fellow BRICS members, demanding they abandon their plans to challenge the dollar.
The timing couldn’t be worse. India is already grappling with inflation that refuses to drop below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target. Now, with Trump’s harsh words looming over global markets, the rupee and emerging-market assets are taking heavy hits.
India’s five-year bond yield dropped by nearly six basis points to 6.62%, while traders bet on rate cuts during the Reserve Bank of India’s meeting on December 6. Meanwhile, stocks sank. Investors clearly don’t like what they’re seeing.
Trump’s ultimatum to BRICS
“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” said Trump. The president warned these countries to drop their plans for a new currency or face devastating consequences, including 100% tariffs and a complete lockout from the U.S. market.
“They should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. economy,” Trump added. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly said the dollar must remain the world’s dominant currency.
Interestingly, India has actually never backed BRICS discussions on reducing reliance on the dollar. At the bloc’s annual summit in October, leaders, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, discussed “de-dollarization” as a way to counter U.S. sanctions.
While Putin has since softened his tone, saying he no longer aims to dethrone the dollar, Trump’s latest threats suggest the U.S. won’t tolerate even the idea of alternatives.
India’s economy is already struggling, and Trump’s pressure is like gasoline on a fire. Goldman Sachs and Barclays both slashed their full-year growth outlooks for India after Friday’s GDP report fell below estimates.
The rupee’s fall is just one symptom. Emerging markets, including India, are highly sensitive to a stronger dollar. India’s challenges are internal too. Inflation is stubbornly high, leaving the Reserve Bank of India in a tough spot. A rate cut could help stimulate growth, but it risks worsening inflation.
BRICS countries are in turmoil
BRICS nations are feeling the heat. While the alliance has pushed back against U.S. dominance for years, Trump’s comeback has the power to shake its unity. Brazil’s CMA agency head, Jose Juan Saches, insists BRICS will stick to its goals.
“From an economic standpoint, there will be no issues as long as global markets remain stable,” he said. But stability is exactly what’s missing right now.
China, another key BRICS player, faces its own set of problems as Trump expands his threats. Over the past week, Trump unveiled plans for a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and even harsher measures against Canada and Mexico.
The decision is tied to broader issues like immigration and drug trafficking. Trump has made it clear that trade with the U.S. will come at a steep cost if these nations don’t fall in line.
India, caught in the middle, has little room to maneuver. Aligning with BRICS means risking access to the U.S. market, one of its largest trading partners. Yet stepping back from BRICS could weaken its influence on the global stage.
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