In a significant departure from traditional trade-centric foreign policy, the United States is poised to assert its dominance in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) diplomacy, serving as a linchpin for shaping the 21st-century global order. With China’s surging AI capabilities and the diminishing returns of trade liberalization, U.S. leadership in AI has become a pivotal tool in advancing its interests on the international stage. This new diplomatic frontier, characterized by technological prowess and economic influence, presents unique challenges and opportunities, heralding a transformative era in global relations.
U.S. asserts its role in AI diplomacy domain
The United States, once the undisputed economic giant of the post-World War II era, finds itself at a crossroads in the evolving global diplomatic landscape. Traditionally, the allure of the U.S. market and the promise of economic prosperity ensured its ability to attract strategic partners. But, this paradigm has shifted. China’s economy now rivals that of the United States, surpassing the Soviet Union’s influence during the Cold War. Trade liberalization, which was instrumental in 20th-century economic growth, faces diminishing returns.
The United States recognizes that it must adapt to these changing dynamics, and AI has emerged as the fulcrum of its diplomatic strategy. American companies, universities, and research labs boast a commanding lead in AI research, development, and commercialization. The U.S. venture capital investments in AI start-ups outstrip the rest of the world combined. With this natural strength, the United States seeks to redefine global diplomacy, emphasizing AI-based productivity enhancements as the key driver of 21st-century economic growth.
Shaping the AI diplomacy agenda
U.S. policymakers are meticulously crafting an AI diplomacy agenda to secure their nation’s leadership role. The empirical evidence underscores the United States’ openness and effectiveness in the AI sector, making it an appealing partner for countries worldwide, irrespective of shared security goals. This economic attraction is exemplified by Indonesia’s decision to grant OpenAI’s Sam Altman the country’s inaugural “golden visa.”
The road to AI diplomacy is not without its challenges. Export controls on AI hardware, while essential, highlight the limitations of security-related commitments. Coordination among allies, especially on these controls, is precarious and may depend on the personal diplomacy of U.S. leaders. To succeed, the United States must broaden its approach beyond export controls.
Transatlantic Consensus: The United States aims to achieve strategic alignment with the European Union, emphasizing alignment with the EU AI Act. A united stance on AI governance could counter strategic divergence and set global AI risk standards.
Engagement with Key Partners: Strategic partners like India, South Korea, and Vietnam have technology policies that impede AI proliferation. U.S. efforts must focus on demonstrating how American companies can support AI development while respecting local concerns.
Multilateral Dialogues: The U.S. should establish bilateral and multilateral dialogues with a broader range of countries, showcasing its AI expertise and fostering collaborative networks. Such dialogues should center on AI rather than traditional issues like social media and e-commerce.
Expanding Export Controls: Beyond hardware controls, the U.S. should consider regulating AI APIs, products, and services, recognizing their potential dual-use nature.
Mitigating AI Risks: Regardless of strategic competition, addressing existential risks and potential AI catastrophes must be a foreign policy priority. Collaborative efforts to identify and address threats from misaligned AI are essential for global security.
As the United States charts its course in the field of AI diplomacy, it stands at a pivotal juncture in global history. Much like the transformative moves of the 1940s, the strategic utilization of U.S. AI capabilities could reshape the global order, ushering in an era of peace, prosperity, and integration. But, the success of this endeavor hinges on the ability of U.S. policymakers to leverage AI as a powerful tool for global diplomacy, setting the stage for a new era of leadership and global cooperation.
