Let’s get to the point: Bitcoin dominance hitting 60% by the end of this year—can it actually happen? We’re all watching Bitcoin claw back its market share after dipping to a low of around 39% in late 2022.
At press time, Bitcoin’s dominance sits at 57.1%. But the million-dollar question remains: is it realistic to expect that number to push to 60% by December?
Bitcoin dominance, which is just the percentage of the total crypto market that Bitcoin controls, has seen its fair share of ups and downs. Right now, it’s up 4.25% since July 18.
But Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, is throwing cold water on the idea that Bitcoin could surge to its previous dominance levels from December 2020, where it reached a jaw-dropping 70% before shooting up in price by 220% in just three months.
Ben isn’t buying the idea that Bitcoin will return to its past glory days of market dominance. In his words:
“I don’t think it is going back up to 70%, my target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%.”
He’s got a point. During major altcoin seasons, like the one we saw in 2021, Bitcoin’s dominance usually takes a hit. It’s happened before, and it could happen again.
Bitcoin tends to recover some of its lost dominance after a breakdown, this time around, it’s not likely to reach those previous highs.
He’s not dismissing Bitcoin’s power, but he’s acknowledging the rise of other big players in the space. “I think there is room for Ethereum and many other cryptocurrencies,” he added.
Current market dynamics
Bitcoin’s dominance has been fluctuating between 49% and 57% this year. That’s a pretty solid climb from where it was in 2022. What’s driving this? A lot of it has to do with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which is closely linked to its halving events.
Historically, these cycles have been pretty predictable. First, there’s a bear market, then a recovery phase, followed by a price surge after the halving, and finally, a year of massive gains.
If history repeats itself, we might see Bitcoin’s dominance continue to rise into 2025. Some analysts are even talking about Bitcoin’s price hitting $200,000 if all the stars align. That’s a big “if,” though.
In a best-case scenario, we’re looking at a perfect storm of institutional adoption, successful tech advancements, and a friendly regulatory environment.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There are plenty of ways this could go south. If regulators decide to crack down hard on Bitcoin, or if altcoins start gaining serious traction, Bitcoin’s dominance could tumble.
Some analysts are warning that if Bitcoin doesn’t keep up with the times—whether that’s through innovation or adapting to market changes—it could lose its grip on the market.
In the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin’s dominance could drop below 50%, especially if altcoins start to attract more investor attention.
