A closely followed analyst is forecasting a breakout for Bitcoin (BTC) later this month based on historical patterns.
The pseudonymous analyst known as Rekt Capital tells his 497,000 followers on the social media platform X that cycles based around the Bitcoin halving – when miners’ rewards are cut in half – suggest that a bullish impulse may start around the end of September.
Rekt Capital’s chart suggests that in the past, BTC consolidated for about five months mid-cycle before sparking a next leg up.
“History suggests that Bitcoin tends to break out 150-160 days after the Halving.
That would mean Bitcoin would break out from its re-accumulation range in late September 2024.
That being said, average historical monthly returns for September are -4.48%, with the highest-ever upside in the month of September being just +6%.
Whereas for October, those average monthly returns are +22.9%.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin consolidates just a little bit more beyond late September to achieve an October breakout.
After all, October has always historically been a strong month.”
The trader has previously said that the bull market peak for this cycle could occur around September 2025.
“If you think about how long it takes for Bitcoin to rally to new all-time highs and to that ultimate bull market peak after the halving, it takes 546 days or 518 days… for example, in 2020 and 2021 it took 546 days after halving to bull market peak.
And in this cycle of 2016-2017, that took 518 days after the halving. So it just showcases to us that it takes 518-546 days after the halving to rally to a bull market peak.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $57,730, down over 2% in the last 24 hours.
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