In a groundbreaking study published in the prestigious journal Nature Aging, researchers have harnessed the power of machine learning to unveil vital markers for healthy aging that are distinct from chronic disease risks. This innovative approach promises to revolutionize our understanding of aging and pave the way for more comprehensive models of healthy aging and common diseases.
Unlocking the secrets of healthy aging
The “geroscience hypothesis” has long suggested that targeting universal aging processes could lead to healthier aging, prolonged lifespan, and a reduction in age-related diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), liver disease (LD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the complex interplay between aging and these diseases has posed a challenge for researchers seeking to establish causality.
To address this challenge, scientists turned to electronic health records (EHRs) as a rich data source to capture millions of individuals’ health trajectories over time. This vast dataset, spanning 4.57 million individuals aged 30 to 85, was obtained from the Clalit Healthcare Services database, providing a comprehensive and long-term perspective on health.
Machine learning unleashed
The research team developed a powerful machine learning model to identify predictive clinical markers for disease-free healthy aging. Initially, they focused on patients aged above 80 years and analyzed laboratory tests that correlated with longevity. This approach enabled them to pinpoint crucial early indicators of healthy aging, such as neutrophil counts and alkaline phosphatase levels, across diverse individuals from Israel, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA).
Intriguingly, the model’s predictive capabilities extended beyond the age of 85, making it a valuable tool for assessing survival probabilities even as early as age 30.
Distinguishing markers of healthy aging
The study found that specific clinical markers held varying degrees of importance at different stages of life. For instance, alkaline phosphatase had a greater impact on younger adults, while glucose and cholesterol were influential during mid-adulthood. In contrast, albumin and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) became more significant as individuals advanced in age.
Furthermore, key factors like body mass index, creatinine levels, and liver enzymes were pivotal in predicting lifelong disease risk. Remarkably, very healthy individuals consistently exhibited low markers of chronic disease risk.
Robust and global findings
The machine learning model’s robustness was confirmed across different populations, including Israeli, US, and UK individuals. It demonstrated substantial predictive power for longevity, even among individuals without known disease predispositions.
Moreover, the study uncovered a noteworthy connection between longevity scores and familial lifespans. Parents of individuals with higher longevity scores enjoyed an extra year on average, suggesting a genetic component to longevity.
Implications and Future Directions
This groundbreaking research offers a fresh perspective on the intricate relationship between aging and chronic diseases. By identifying distinct markers of healthy aging, this study paves the way for developing comprehensive, longitudinal models that move beyond static representations of aging and disease.
However, further investigation is required to define a precise “healthy state” and delve into the physiological processes underlying the disease-related findings unveiled in this study. The researchers also recommend employing multivariate disease risk models to enhance our understanding of genome-wide association studies.
This study marks a significant stride toward unraveling the mysteries of healthy aging and age-related diseases. By harnessing the power of machine learning and analyzing extensive health data, researchers are now better equipped to target the fundamental aging processes and promote healthier, disease-free lives for all. The future of aging research looks promising as scientists continue to unlock the secrets of a longer, healthier life.
