In the realm of technological anticipation, 2024 is poised to emerge as a canvas of unprecedented predictions and transformative expectations. As we stand on the cusp of a new year, a wave of projections sweeps through the tech and media landscapes, painting a picture of what lies ahead. From the anticipated ascendancy of Threads, Meta’s text-based social network, to Google’s projected relentless pursuit of OpenAI in language model quality, the year promises to be a crucible of innovation and competition.
The expected training of GPT-5 heralds a new frontier in artificial intelligence, while challenges in search algorithms and media dynamics foreshadow shifts that could reshape our digital experiences. Join us on this journey as we explore the multifaceted predictions that set the stage for 2024, a year poised to redefine the boundaries of technological and societal landscapes.
Threads ascendancy
In a seismic shift, Threads, Meta’s brainchild, is predicted to emerge as the leading text-based social network, overtaking X in daily users. With a projected thriving user base nearing 100 million, Threads is poised to leverage Meta’s colossal audience to dominate the social media landscape further. This development is expected to reshape the dynamics of online interaction, as Threads expands its reach into the European Union and integrates with the Fediverse.
Under the Threads umbrella, Meta is anticipated to intensify its focus on Instagram, using its vast user base to drive daily usage for both platforms. The introduction of an API is expected to attract a diverse user base, including publishers, public officials, emergency services, and sports enthusiasts. As Threads solidifies its position, Bluesky, once a contender, is predicted to face a decline as its development team prioritizes underlying protocol over growth and user experience improvements.
Google’s challenge to OpenAI
Meanwhile, Google, in pursuit of OpenAI, is projected to make significant strides in language model quality, closing the gap with OpenAI’s GPT. The spotlight is expected to shift from model capabilities to product experiences, with Google’s Gemini models at near-parity with ChatGPT. The battle for supremacy is predicted to hinge on user experience and distribution, where Microsoft and Google hold advantageous positions. Despite anticipated challenges for Google in 2024, Gemini’s quality ensures that “Gemini sucks” won’t be one of them.
GPT-5 emerges
In the realm of artificial intelligence, GPT-5 is expected to begin training, a mere year after GPT-4’s public release. Despite OpenAI’s leadership drama, the pace of innovation is predicted to accelerate, signaling the organization’s commitment to maintaining its leadership in AI development.
Challenges in search and media
2024 is predicted to bring challenges for Google in the search domain. The quality of search results is expected to deteriorate as AI-generated content infiltrates the internet, eroding trust. Google is projected to grapple with distinguishing AI-written pages from human-generated ones, signaling a potential paradigm shift in online search.
Simultaneously, the rise of AI-generated content farms is predicted to pose a threat to digital media companies, resulting in job losses and consolidation. Despite promising avenues like subscriptions, live events, and podcasts, the digital media landscape is predicted to face disruptions that may lead to layoffs and closures.
Political landscape and social media fragmentation
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election unfolds, synthetic media is predicted to play a role, but its impact is anticipated to remain limited, thanks to real-time fact-checking and platform restrictions. Social media fragmentation is expected to complicate understanding voter sentiments, with a diverse mix of platforms contributing to a more fragmented media environment than seen in two decades.
Apple’s Vision Pro and AI companions
Apple’s Vision Pro, with its high price tag, is projected to succeed in reviving interest in mixed reality and the metaverse. Despite limited everyday utility, positive reviews from early adopters are expected to justify its position as a status symbol for Apple customers.
The societal trend towards digital interaction is anticipated to deepen as more people claim to be in romantic relationships with AI companions. In the face of a national loneliness epidemic, chatbots with advanced capabilities are expected to offer a digital refuge, leading to the potential emergence of billion-dollar companies catering to this market.
Meta’s strategic shift
Meta is predicted to make a strategic move by discontinuing its celebrity-based AI characters, recognizing the limited appeal of avatars resembling real personalities. The decision is expected to point to an evolving understanding of user preferences in AI interactions.
Donald Trump’s return to X
Seeking refuge from the declining Truth Social, a potential partnership with X, led by Elon Musk, is predicted to be a high-stakes affair, with Trump’s posts testing the boundaries of content moderation.
Department of Justice and X
Simultaneously, the Department of Justice is anticipated to file a complaint against X for violating its 2022 consent order. The highly politicized battle is expected to involve accusations of silencing Musk, and if the FTC stays its course, fines exceeding $150 million may be imminent.
Predictions for 2024 and the unknown future
As 2024 unfolds, the tech and media landscape is predicted to witness unprecedented transformations. Threads, Google, GPT-5, and Apple’s Vision Pro are expected to redefine their respective domains, while challenges in search, media, and social dynamics are expected to create a tapestry of uncertainty. The future begs the question: How will individuals, industries, and nations adapt to this evolving technological and social landscape?
