Bitcoin and select altcoins continue to face selling at higher levels, a sign that the bears have not yet given up.
The cryptocurrency market witnessed sharp volatility on April 26 on rumors that large sums of Bitcoin (BTC) were on the move from the wallets linked to the defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox and the United States government. A minor positive is that Bitcoin and select altcoins held their respective support levels.
After Bitcoin’s sharp rally in 2023, some traders seem to be planning to book profits. Coinglass reported that the Bitcoin balance held at Binance soared by 50,000 Bitcoin in the past 30 days.
While this could add to short-term pressure, bulls can take solace because the increase is not identical across exchanges. Coinglass said that the aggregate increase of Bitcoin balance across exchanges was 14,000 Bitcoin.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
The next major event for the market is likely to be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting on May 2 and 3. The FedWatch Tool projects a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in the meeting. Most analysts expect this to be the final rate hike before a pivot later in the year.
Could Bitcoin and select altcoins break above their respective resistance levels and resume the up-move? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin formed a long-legged doji candlestick pattern on April 26, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears about the next directional move. This uncertainty resolved to the upside with a close above the 20-day exponential moving average ($28,619) on April 27.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA while the bulls will attempt to flip the level into support. If buyers succeed, the BTC/USDT pair will try to challenge the overhead resistance zone between $31,000 and $32,400. This zone is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and slips below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the sentiment is turning negative and traders are selling on rallies. The pair may then retest the strong support at the 50-day simple moving average ($27,657). A break and close below this level could open the gates for a decline to $25,250.
ETH price analysis
The bulls kicked Ether (ETH) above the 20-day EMA ($1,905) on April 26 and 27 but they could not reach the psychological level of $2,000. This suggests that the bears are trying to halt the recovery below $2,000.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This points to a possible range-bound action between $2,000 and $1,785 for a few days.
If that happens, it will be a positive sign because it will indicate that the bulls are not rushing to book profits. That will enhance the prospects for a potential rally to $2,200. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and breaks below $1,785. The ETH/USDT pair could then collapse to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,663.
BNB price analysis
The bulls propelled BNB (BNB) above the $338 overhead resistance on April 26 but they could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls again tried to overcome the obstacle at $338 on April 27 but the bears did not budge. The selling picked up momentum on April 28 and the bears are trying to sink the price below the 50-day SMA ($321). If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could dive to $300 and thereafter to $280.
Instead, if the price rebounds off the current level, it will indicate that bulls have not given up and are buying on dips. The bulls will have to surmount the hurdle at $350 to signal the start of a new uptrend toward $400.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) bounced off the support at $0.43 on April 26, indicating that the bulls are fiercely guarding this level.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($0.48), which is an important level for the bears to defend in the near term. If the price turns down from this level, the sellers will again try to yank the price below $0.43. If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair may plunge to $0.36.
Contrarily, if buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair can reach the resistance line. A break and close above this level will suggest that the short-term corrective phase is over. The pair will then attempt a rally to $0.54 and subsequently to $0.58.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) rebounded off the 50-day SMA ($0.38) on April 25 and 26, indicating that buyers are trying to start a recovery from this support.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The ADA/USDT pair has reached the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern where the bears are trying to halt the recovery. If buyers overpower the sellers and sustain the price above the neckline, the pair should rally to $0.46.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the neckline, it will suggest that the bears are trying to prevent the reversal pattern from forming. The sellers will then make another attempt to sink the price below the 50-day SMA. If they can pull it off, the pair could dump to $0.34.
Dogecoin price analysis
The bears pulled Dogecoin (DOGE) below the support near $0.08 on April 26 but they failed to build upon the breakdown. Buyers purchased the dip and pushed the price back above the 50-day SMA ($0.08) on April 27.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The next resistance to watch out for is the 20-day EMA ($0.08) and then the downtrend line. Buyers will have to propel the price above the downtrend line to clear the path for a possible rally to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone.
Meanwhile, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the price back below the support near $0.08. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair may slide to the vital support near $0.07. The bulls are likely to protect this level with all their might.
Polygon price analysis
The long tail on Polygon’s (MATIC) April 25 and 26 candlestick shows that the bulls are defending the support at $0.94 with vigor but the bears have not yet given up.
MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($1.05) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears have the upper hand. Sellers will try to halt the recovery in the zone between the 20-day EMA and the resistance line.
If the price turns down from the resistance line, it will signal the formation of a potential descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break below $0.94. If this support cracks, the MATIC/USDT pair risks a plunge to $0.69.
Related: Bitcoin price holds $29K as US PCE data sparks 90% Fed rate hike bets
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) tried to break out of the tight range trading on April 26 but failed. The bulls are again trying to resolve the uncertainty in their favor on April 28.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price rises above the immediate resistance at $23.18, it will signal that the bulls have absorbed the supply. The SOL/USDT pair will then attempt a rally toward the stiff overhead resistance at $27.12, which remains the key level for the bulls to overcome. If they do that, the pair can start a new up-move and soar to $39.
If bears want to prevent the rally, they will have to quickly tug the price below the $18.70 support. That can sink the pair to the next support at $15.28.
Polkadot price analysis
The bears successfully defended the moving averages on April 26 but could not sustain the drop below the support at $5.70. This indicates that Polkadot (DOT) is finding buyers at lower levels.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The DOT/USDT pair can swing between $5.70 and the 50-day SMA ($6.20) for some time. If the consolidation resolves to the downside, the selling could intensify and the pair may fall to $5.15. This level is likely to attract buyers.
Alternatively, if buyers drive the price above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the bulls are on a comeback. The pair may first climb to $7 and if this resistance is scaled, the rally could stretch to $7.90.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) witnessed a hugely volatile day on April 26, indicating that the bulls and the bears tried to gain complete control but failed.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Usually, large volatile days are followed by a range contraction for a few days. The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a range-bound action in the near term. The LTC/USDT pair may oscillate between $85 and $96 for some time.
A break above $96 or below $85 will start the next leg of the trending move. If bears sink the price below $85, the pair may plummet to $75. On the other hand, a rally above $96 may open the gates for a possible rally to $106.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
