Recent developments have stirred the crypto community and legal pundits in the ongoing legal tussle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs. U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres recently denied the SEC’s plea for an interlocutory appeal certification, sparking a flurry of discussions among XRP enthusiasts and stakeholders about the future trajectory of the case.
Moreover, Attorney Jeremy Hogan of Hogan & Hogan Law Firm has delineated three plausible scenarios that might unfold in the ensuing legal battle. His insights, shared on the X platform, have become a focal point for discussions and speculations within the crypto legal sphere.
Hogan highlights that the SEC retains the right to contest the final ruling despite the setback. The trial, aimed at resolving the dispute with Ripple executives Chris Larsen and Brad Garlinghouse, is slated for April 23, 2024. Hogan quantifies the probability of the SEC taking Ripple’s executives to trial at 39.546 percent. Should the case proceed to trial, he anticipates that any appeal would materialize in 2025, with a judgment from the Second Circuit likely around 2026.
Additionally, Hogan suggests that the SEC might opt for a settlement with the Ripple executives, thereby securing a conclusive judgment before initiating an appeal. He pegs the likelihood of this outcome at 32.113 percent, noting that it could expedite the appeal process by 9–12 months. If a settlement is reached, the remedies’ lawsuit will commence until August 14, 2026.
However, Hogan also presents a third scenario: a settlement that dismisses the SEC’s complaint against Ripple Labs and its executives. While he speculates that a settlement could be brokered during a court-ordered session, he observes that the SEC has not demonstrated a proactive stance toward resolution. Consequently, he estimates an 18.987 percent chance of this outcome materializing. Hogan has earmarked December 21, 2023, as a plausible settlement date.
These insights from Hogan provide a structured framework for understanding the possible paths that the SEC v. Ripple case might traverse in the coming years. The crypto community, legal experts, and investors, are closely monitoring the developments, as the outcome of this case could shape the regulatory landscape for digital assets in the United States.
