Bitcoin came to age as a result of Satoshi Nakamoto’s idea. The onset of Bitcoin followed the 2007-2008 Great Depression. At that time, Satoshi created a crypto coin with the intent to make it far above the reach of governments and financial middlemen.
Did the coin succeed? Of course. Is it serving Satoshi’s full vision? No. Why? Satoshi never accounted for human psychology and the idea of self-preservation. Traders have gone through crypto winter cycles, and it appears as though they do not understand BTC as Satoshi intended.
October has been marked Uptober with a bull run in sight for Q4 2024. However, on-chain data shows that the market has lost traction and could fall into bearish trends. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin (BTC) is worth $61,554.13 today, having lost 6.4% market share in the last seven days.
Crypto market analysts have tied the drop to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially between Israel and Iran. Moments after Iran bombed parts of Israel, BTC dropped 5.4%. Why? Investors began to pull money from risky assets such as Bitcoin.
Satoshi Nakamoto’s failed insights have Bitcoin stuck in bear markets
When creating Bitcoin, Satoshi envisioned a crypto coin that would cater to the worries that led to the financial collapse in 2007. However, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bitcoin fell as low as $20,000 and ushered in a crypto market crash.
The results led centralized crypto entities to file for bankruptcy and shut down operations. Now, traders have returned to COVID-19 fear and greed market sentiments marred by fear, doubt, and uncertainty.
It begs the question of whom misunderstood whom? Did Satoshi fail at his target market, or have traders yet to understand the power Nakamoto saw with Bitcoin? Maybe it is both. However, one thing is clear: The crypto 2024 bull rally is out of reach.
Earlier this year, the US SEC approved institutional spot BTC ETFs. Later, ETH ETFs graced the market, and NOTHING has changed in market growth and adoption. Institutional investors have ushered in a marriage between the government and BTC. The results have birthed crypto chokehold regulations, especially in America.
Look, the US November elections are a month away. The outcome of who becomes POTUS will directly impact the crypto environment in America. Better yet, that will trickle down to how the rest of the global economy responds to Kamala’s or Trump’s presidential win.
In 2023, billionaire Warren Buffet has pulled out investments and held on to cash ahead of the elections. This has become a trend among many investors. In addition, Bitcoin has thrived on the back of the secrecy of who Satoshi is.
Well, HBO is set to release a documentary from Emmy-nominated Cullen Hoback, director of Q: Into the Storm, which unveiled who was behind the QAnon Conspiracy Theory that dominated 4chan during the 2016 election. Now, he promises to name who Satoshi is. That could cause a loss of enthusiasm among BTC traders.
Polymarket bettors think that Len Sassaman will be the person the documentary names. Bettors are also giving thought to the big reveal, possibly being someone else who’s not known in the crypto industry, putting a 32% chance on it being someone else or multiple people.
But another contract on the prediction market site gives an 89% chance that Satoshi’s identity will not be definitely proven in 2024. With so much happening in Q4 2024, a bull run will be the last thing in sight.
