Deciding whether to put your money into Bitcoin now, amidst the halving, or after, is a gamble that has the crypto community on its toes. So, every four years, Bitcoin undergoes what’s called a “halving” — this is when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. This mechanism not only slows down the creation of new Bitcoins but is also a moment that has historically led to significant price increases. Right now, the big question is whether this is the golden moment to invest in Bitcoin.
A look at the past suggests that, yes, halvings have often been followed by bull runs, pushing Bitcoin to new price heights. On the other hand, prices tend to move more slowly right after these halvings. This trend makes me think that 150 to 400 days after a halving might be the “sweet spot” for buying in Bitcoin. During this time, the fact that miners are selling less seems to be helping Bitcoin’s price.
Just before the last halving, Bitcoin’s price soared past $60,000 for the first time in over two years, marking a significant pre-halving rally. This rally is also supported by a surge in investments into Bitcoin, particularly through new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. These funds are snapping up Bitcoin at a rate that far outpaces the creation of new coins, contributing to the upward price pressure.
But what’s fueling this rally? It seems a mix of anticipation for the halving and a significant amount of investment flowing into Bitcoin ETFs. These funds are buying Bitcoin at an astonishing pace, creating a scarcity that drives prices up. As a result, the assets under management for these funds are nearing all-time highs, indicating a robust and growing interest in Bitcoin as an investment.
Analysts are already looking forward, attempting to predict where Bitcoin’s price would go after the halving. Based on historical performance and the declining rewards of each successive halving, some predict that Bitcoin may still have a substantial rise, perhaps causing its price to reach $125,000 to $150,000 by 2025. Although there was a temporary dip after the halving, this would indicate that Bitcoin’s long-term prospects are still strong. It would also be a significant gain from current levels.
Some are even more bullish, predicting that Bitcoin might hit $200,000 in the near future if the current bull market persists and general financial market circumstances are good. Those prepared to invest now or soon after the halving might reap huge profits from this unparalleled pace of growth.
However, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. The rapid increase in Bitcoin’s price and trading activity bears a striking resemblance to the frenzy of 2021, raising concerns that the market might be getting ahead of itself. High levels of trading activity and open interest in Bitcoin suggest that the market is heating up, potentially leading to increased volatility and risk for investors. While these indicators signal a strong bull market, they also warn of the possibility of a sharp correction if the market becomes too overheated.
Bitcoin’s price has also been hitting all-time high in other currencies, reaching new highs in Euros and British pounds. This shows that there is a rise in desire for Bitcoin all over the world, not just in the US. Thank God. Despite these gains, past cycles suggest that investors should proceed with caution. The excitement of new highs can quickly turn into panic if the market corrects, as many analysts expect it might.
