The US Presidential election result has observers looking to Polymarket as a source of reliable predictions on the outcome. The Trump-Harris betting pair, however, is behaving in a way that suggests much more than a rush of retail bets.
The Polymarket betting pair on the outcome of the Trump-Harris election has started to look like a Trump win is the more likely outcome. However, the market’s symmetrical shift to bets on Trump has started to look suspicious. The Trump-Harris market has $2B in volumes and is the most active pair on the Polymarket platform.
Polymarket observers followed the money
On-chain investigation discovered that indeed, the bets were made with overwhelming confidence in Trump’s victory. However, the entities that made the bets may be sock puppet accounts for one single probability trader. Analysts tracked the bets to the lead account, Fredi9999, which is linked to other accounts with similar behavior: PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo.
The accounts made bets on the Trump-Harris market, as well as the popular vote market, swaying the odds in just a few days. The effect of the bets also decreased the value of previous whales with positions in ‘yes’ tokens for Harris. The market is yet to balance itself, though Harris ‘yes’ tokens are also used as a hedge, in case the elections do not conform to the current bets.
Since Polymarket records the bets on-chain and ties them to users’ wallets and USDC balances, we could follow the footprints of the four accounts. Together, the four accounts accumulated $25M for bets in the final stretch before the election date.
The four accounts show a similar pattern of deposits coming in from Kraken, in rounds of $500K to $1M transfers. The betting patterns of the accounts are also too similar, suggesting a single entity making the bets. All of the accounts are already tracked by forum commenters, suggesting the bets may be irrational.
Despite the over-confident bets, all four accounts are among the top earners on Polymarket’s leaderboard. Fredi9999 is also the top earner on the market, with $1.79M in profits. The profits are held in the trader’s wallet, containing $1.169M of USDC. The wallet is strictly used for betting, and it does not hold any other types of assets.
On Polymarket, each bet is a separate token, so the inflow of buying from the four accounts boosted demand for the ‘yes’ vote on Donald Trump, and proportionately diminished the price of the ‘yes’ vote for Kamala Harris.
Hypotheses on why the bets were made ranged from a smart trader taking risks to suggestions of spending $25M to make Trump’s win appear imminent. The betting markets have been consulted more often as a predictor of the election cycle sentiment, turning Polymarket into a top app both for crypto insiders and for outsider bets.
Is Fredi9999 smart money?
The size of the bets based on the four accounts is no guarantee that the bettor is politically connected. A researcher that contacted one of the accounts, Michie, suggests the bets may originate with a European trader, most likely from France based on language quirks.
A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.
Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive… pic.twitter.com/HYlZpUfk2k
— Domer (@Domahhhh) October 16, 2024
The bets also repeated a pattern from previous political markets, where over-confident traders turned out to make the wrong bet and take losses.
Prediction markets aim to position themselves as a better alternative to polls because they do not limit participants. However, the market principle means opinions can be skewed to take a measured risk with higher potential earnings.
This time, Fredi9999 looks like a bettor with more skin in the game compared to official polls, and the positions may represent real convictions. The behavior may also create FOMO for other investors, amplifying the effect of the main betting account.
Other speculations on the account’s identity include crypto insiders with a conservative slant, or simply foolish money making a brash bet. Other speculations see the Polymarket chart as open to guerilla tactics to boost Trump’s campaign.
While the bets of $25M are relatively large for Polymarket, in campaign terms, they may be a cheaper way to sway public opinion. The Polymarket chart has become highly influential, but the non-organic bet may cut into its effect in swaying public opinion.
