A Polymarket whale, possibly using multiple accounts, has placed millions of dollars in rapid bets favoring Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, prompting scrutiny over the platform's compliance with user restrictions in the United States.
Polymarket Whale's Betting Frenzy
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, has seen an unusual surge in bets favoring Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. According to reports, a "whale" on the platform, potentially comprising multiple linked accounts, has placed significant wagers, prompting Polymarket to investigate if the users involved are adhering to platform regulations, particularly regarding the ban on U.S. users.
Almost $2.3 billion has already been wagered in Polymarket's “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market. Currently, the market's odds reflect a 63.7% chance of a Trump victory, compared to 36.2% for Vice President Kamala Harris.
High-Speed Betting by Trump Supporters
Four accounts on Polymarket—identified as Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—have raised eyebrows with their betting activity. These accounts are believed to be associated with the same individual or group, referred to as the "Trump whale." Collectively, they hold around $46 million in open bets.
Data from Business Insider revealed that Fredi9999 and Theo4 alone have placed over 2,500 bets in just 24 hours. In some cases, Theo4 was betting at an astonishing rate of 71 wagers per minute, suggesting the possibility of automated betting.
The bets cover various election-related outcomes, including questions like "Will a Republican win the Michigan Presidential Election?" and "Which party wins the 2024 US Presidential Election?" The wager amounts range from small sums to tens of thousands of dollars, with the total bet volume from Fredi9999 and Theo4 surpassing $2 million within a day.
Polymarket Scrutiny Amid Speculation
The intense betting activity has sparked concerns regarding the legitimacy of the bets, especially given Polymarket's restrictions on U.S. users. While the platform blocks U.S. residents from participation, there is speculation that some may be bypassing these restrictions using virtual private networks (VPNs).
This has led Polymarket to ramp up its due diligence to ensure compliance, particularly in light of concerns that large bets could skew the platform’s odds in favor of Donald Trump, impacting the prediction market.
Investor and Analyst Reactions
Polymarket's handling of the election betting activity has garnered attention from industry experts, including billionaire and platform investor Mark Cuban. He noted that most of the funds being bet on the U.S. election are coming from overseas, casting doubt on the bets' relevance to domestic voter sentiment.
Despite the scrutiny, some argue that the betting activity is not the result of manipulation. Tarek Mansour, founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, defended Polymarket’s results, pointing out that the median bet size on Kamala Harris is actually larger than that on Donald Trump.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
