VanEck, a prominent player in the financial industry, has recently released a set of 15 bold predictions for the year 2024, offering a roadmap that promises to reshape the crypto landscape. As we stand on the precipice of a new era, these forecasts by VanEck beckon investors and enthusiasts alike to prepare for a seismic shift in the crypto sphere.
VanEck has a crypto-predicted blueprint for 2024
VanEck, an investing firm, has released new research that includes 15 projections for the crypto scene in 2024. The report delves into the critical prospect of Ethereum dethroning Bitcoin.
Contrary to popular belief, the analysis stated that despite strong growth, Ethereum will fall short of “flipping” Bitcoin next year.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin will continue to be the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Bitcoin may also gain state-level backing in countries such as Argentina. The paper also highlights Bitcoin’s clear regulatory position as well as its increased energy use.
This is expected to pique the interest of quasi-state entities in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia. Here are the top 7 VanEck’s predictions:
1. The long-awaited U.S. recession will arrive, along with the first Bitcoin ETFs!
According to VanEck, the United States’ economy will eventually enter a recession in the first half of this year. For months, economic momentum has been weakening, and inflation has slowed, making the economy more sensitive to shocks. Leading indicators in the United States have entered recessionary territory after 19 months of consecutive falls, which is close to a record.
VanEck anticipates that more than $2.4 billion will flow into newly approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2024 to keep the Bitcoin price elevated since sovereign debt levels are more worrying than business or consumer debt levels. Despite the probability of severe volatility, the Bitcoin price is unlikely to go below $30k in the first quarter of 2024.
2. The 4th Bitcoin halving will be a quiet affair
In April 2024, the four-year Bitcoin halving will take place without a big fork or missed blocks. Unprofitable miners will disconnect as fresh coin issuance is slashed in half, relinquishing shares to those with low-cost power. Nonetheless, the public markets will experience little disruption due to much-improved balance sheets among listed miners, who already control a record global hash rate (25%).
3. Bitcoin will make an all-time high in Q4
In the second half of 2024, Bitcoin will climb a Presidential-sized worry wall. Global voting in legislative and presidential elections will reach a record high in 2024 at over 45%. High volatility and big changes are predicted by these many important elections.
VanEck sees growing indications that voters and judges are rejecting the Green lobby’s anti-growth agenda. They expect Bitcoin to reach an all-time high on November 9th, exactly three years after its last high.
4. In 2024, Ethereum will not flip Bitcoin
Ethereum will fail to outperform every mega-cap tech stock in 2024, but it will outperform Bitcoin. The increased regulatory visibility and energy intensity of Bitcoin will pique the curiosity of quasi-state entities in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia.
Argentina will become the fifth country to sponsor Bitcoin mining at the state level, joining El Salvador, the UAE, Oman, and Bhutan, as Argentina’s state-owned energy behemoth YPF may express interest in mining digital currencies with stranded methane and gas.
5. NFT activity will rebound to an all-time high
Monthly NFT volumes will approach an all-time high, according to VanEck, as speculators return to crypto and gravitate towards top NFT collections on Ethereum, better crypto games, and new Bitcoin-based services. Despite ETH’s almost 50-1 primary NFT sales ratio vs. Bitcoin since conception, Bitcoin’s Ordinals protocol and forthcoming layer 2 chains on Bitcoin will promote a sustained resurgence in Bitcoin network fees.
6. Binance will lose its top-spot trading position
Binance will lose its crown as the largest centralized exchange by volume following the company’s $4 billion settlement with US regulators. OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget will emerge as well-funded competitors with the ability to overtake Coinbase as the market leader.
The inclusion of crypto exchange prices in regulated indices, such as those managed by VanEck subsidiary MarketVectors, will become an important factor in deciding whether some centralized exchanges are qualified to offer liquidity for ETF-authorized participants and sponsors.
7. Solana will continue to beat ETH as DeFi TVL returns
Solana will rank among the top three blockchains in terms of market capitalization, Total Value Locked (TVL), and active users. Solana will join the spot ETF warfare as a result of a surge of asset managers filing filings. VanEck sees a legitimate potential that Solana-based pricing oracle Pyth flips Chainlink in Total Value Secured (“TVS”) as a result of Solana’s continuous market share growth.
