Serbia is all eyes on the BRICS bunch lately, and it looks like the feeling is mutual. The BRICS, which has been on a roll adding new countries since the start of 2024, might just swing its doors wide open for Serbia.
There’s a growing trend among nations to ditch the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and BRICS is smack in the middle of it, handing out invites to those who are down with this plan.
So, is Serbia about to become the first Balkan star in the BRICS sky?
Well, the word out is that BRICS rolled out the red carpet for Serbia to join them at their next summit in Russia later this year. This is huge because Serbia has been hanging around, waiting to get into the European Union since 2009, without much luck. Looks like they might just pivot to a different crew.
Last year, Serbia’s Movement of Socialists got parliament to give the thumbs up to apply for BRICS membership. They were like, “Most of our folks think joining BRICS is the best move.”
If Serbia shows up at the summit and gets in, they’ll be the first European country to crack into this group. Whoop, whoop!
Let’s Talk Numbers
This just in from the World Bank on Thursday.
They’re bumping up Serbia’s economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.5% from the earlier 3.0%. And it doesn’t stop there—things are expected to speed up to 3.8% in 2025 and hit 4.0% in 2026. But here’s the kicker: the Serbian economy’s got to pull off some serious structural moves to keep this party going, especially with the EU income levels in sight.
And it’s not just about growth.
The World Bank’s betting on a 5% inflation rate for Serbia this year, but they think it’ll chill out to 3.5% by 2025 and 3.2% the year after. As for the current account gap, that’s gonna widen to 3.6% of GDP this year from last year’s 2.6%, and don’t expect it to shrink anytime soon. On the flip side, Serbia’s fiscal deficit is set to shrink from 2.2% of GDP last year to 2.0% in 2024, and then down to 1.5% for the next couple of years.
BRICS Going Big
BRICS isn’t just Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa anymore, you know. They’ve welcomed Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE into the fold.
Now since its start in 2009, BRICS has been sort of China-heavy on the trade front, with everyone else just tagging along. But lately, India’s started to catch up, thanks to its booming economy.
But here’s the tea. Even though they’re tight, the rest of the BRICS gang doesn’t really trade much with each other compared to how much business they do with China. Interesting, huh? And with China pushing hard on the foreign policy gas pedal, they’ve been the big boss at the United Nations too, except for that one time Brazil didn’t toe the line on Ukraine in 2022.
Okay so, China wants to expand BRICS even more to include a mix of countries that are either loaded with cash or seriously strapped for it, plus some major oil players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The big question is what BRICS can really pull off with such a mixed bag of countries and whether they can keep their goals straight post-expansion.
They’re also hollering for some major changes at big institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, wanting a setup that really speaks for everyone, not just the big guns. Plus, they’re all about using local currencies for trade, especially with China, to keep things clear and fair in global trade.
How this BRICS expansion turns out depends a lot on how they handle their internal stuff and what the rest of the world thinks about it. Whether the boys can keep up the momentum depends on a lot of things, like how China’s power plays out and how the rest of the BRICS members feel about it.
With the diversity in the group, it could either be a huge win for everyone or a tricky path to tread, especially for India, feeling the heat from China.
So, that’s the lowdown. Will my girl Serbia end up with a new set of powerful pals? I sure hope so! But let’s see.
