While the halving event is considered one of the main catalysts for Bitcoin bull markets, it may play out differently next year.
The impact of the Bitcoin halving on crypto prices is often overestimated and the next halving, set for April 2024, may play out differently than previous ones, according to a leading analyst.
The halving event, which every four years, cuts in half the rate by which new Bitcoins are created, and is generally considered one of the main catalysts driving Bitcoin’s biggest upside moves.
Despite the bullish narrative surrounding the halving, however, the event by itself does not guarantee the appreciation of Bitcoin.
If the reduced supply of new Bitcoin is not accompanied by significant demand, prices are unlikely to surge.
Also, the halving is an entirely predictable event: that means all market participants know in advance when it will occur and therefore its current price may already be reflective of the halving's impact before it happens.
“Things that we most anticipate generally don't happen,” said Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, commenting on the much anticipated event.
“And that's what I'm concerned about. It's complete consensus,” he continued.
Also, each time the halving occurs, its impact on the new Bitcoin supply decreases; over time, its impact will eventually become irrelevant. Changes in demand, rather than supply, are therefore becoming the dominant factor influencing the price of Bitcoin.
So, how will the next Bitcoin halving impact the crypto market? And, if not the halving, what is the catalysts behind Bitcoin’s cyclical upside moves? To find out, check out our latest Cointelegraph Report on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!
