The Bitcoin halving hype has long passed, and this month’s massive options expiry provides insight into the future of the current BTC bull market.
A total of $9.25 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options is set to expire on the morning of June 28. June’s monthly expiry is especially important given that it marks the end of the first half of 2024 and historically is the second largest expiry in every market, including the traditional finance industry. Investors are especially concerned after the $3 trillion tech giant NVidia traded down 12% since its all-time high on June 20.
It has been two months since the Bitcoin halving, which likely explains why 57% of the bullish bets have been placed at $70,000 or higher. But, in reality, the market displayed weakness in the past two weeks, making those call (buy) options essentially worthless. If Bitcoin remains near $61,500 on June 28 at 8:00 am UTC, the rights to buy BTC at $62,000 and $64,000 will not take part in the expiry. Similarly, put (sell) options at $58,000 and $60,000 are rendered null.
Bitcoin bulls have weak macroeconomic data on their side, which favors a more aggressive rate cut and monetary stimulus campaigns from the United States Federal Reserve and Department of Treasury. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped to a six-month low in May, down 11.3% from the prior year. More concerningly, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.3 months to clear the new houses supply, up from 8.1 months in April.
