Crypto crime update
1/ ?Mid-year crypto crime update! ?
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022
In this thread, we look into the effects that the market downturn has had on illicit #cryptocurrency activity. https://t.co/DdfHNjRotU
2/ Through July 2022’s #cryptocurrency transaction volumes for both illicit and legitimate entities are tracking behind 2021. pic.twitter.com/ty536KdTLk
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022
3/ Overall, criminal activity appears to be more resilient in the face of price declines: Illicit volumes are down just 15% year over year, compared to 36% for legitimate volumes.
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022
4/ One type of crime type that’s fallen in 2022 is scams. Total scam revenue for 2022 currently sits at $1.6Bn, 65% lower than it was through the end of July in 2021, and this decline appears linked to declining prices across different currencies. pic.twitter.com/LDj3Io4Baz
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022
5/ Since Jan 2022, scam revenue has fallen more or less in line with Bitcoin pricing. And as we see on the chart below, it’s not just scam revenue falling — the cumulative number of individual transfers to scams so far in 2022 is the lowest it’s been in the past 4 years. pic.twitter.com/aeQgz1XcpH
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022
6/ Fewer people than ever are falling for #crypto scams. A reason for this could be that with asset prices falling, crypto scams—which typically present themselves as passive #crypto investing opportunities with enormous promised returns—are less enticing to potential victims.
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022
Bitcoin aggregate risk model
Welcome to your weekly quantitative edge in the #Bitcoin market.
— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022
As on every Monday, we are going to look at the lite version of the #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model.
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Let's put our emotions aside and look at what the data tell us.
— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022
Currently, Risk Score equals 1.47
This is still a relatively low-risk environment if you are a long-term #Bitcoin investor.
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Risk Score has historically been lower only in 11.2% of the time.
— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022
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For geeks, here is a detailed look at percentiles.
— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022
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If you find my weekly updates valuable, please consider donating a retweet. It will help me grow as an analyst ?
— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022
Lastly, have a great Monday folks ?
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